3797 W Morgan Ln

San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$370,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-592/mo
• Annual: $-7,110/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-592 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (45.6% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.