3797 W Morgan Ln · San Tan Valley, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +10.5/15.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- Cash flow +6.7/30.0
- Livability +2.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.8/10.0
- DSCR +0.9/10.0
- 1% rule +0.4/10.0
$370,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Your new home or sweet home away from home awaits with fresh interior & exterior paint, carpet, and a new HVAC - this home is turn key ready for stress free enjoyment. The Great Room floorplan features a split bedroom arrangement; Owners Suite and 3 addtional bedrooms! You'll appreciate all the storage areas, expansive nuetral tile in the hall and walkways, and especially the beautiful granite and stainless steel appliances. Home is perfect north/south oriented with glimpses of the San Tan Mountain in the backyard. Nearby is the heated community pool with lots of parks and walkways in the community. And minutes away is shopping and dining, and the fabulous San Tan Regional Park.
Key facts
- Newer windows
- Sliding glass door
- Upgraded insulation
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Home design: Built in 2004
- Construction: Single-family residence with 1,520 living area
- Exterior features: Located in the San Tan Heights subdivision
Interior
- Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-592 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (28.3% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (45.6% below list).
- Recommended offer: $201k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
- Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.54% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.37%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.86%
- DSCR
- 0.69
- GRM
- 15.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $396,720
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3823 W Dancer Ln | 0.11mi | 4/2.0 | 1,521 (+0%) | 2mo | $339,000 | $223 | 93 |
| 3830 W Santa Cruz Ave | 0.18mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,506 (-1%) | 2mo | $338,000 | $224 | 83 |
| 3728 W Carlos Ln | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,504 (-1%) | 0mo | $329,000 | $219 | 82 |
| 3202 W Carlos Ln | 0.44mi | 4/2.0 | 1,539 (+1%) | 1mo | $260,000 | $169 | 77 |
| 4041 W Copperleaf Dr | 0.18mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,615 (+6%) | 3mo | $374,900 | $232 | 74 |
| 35084 N Sacramento Wash Rd | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,595 (+5%) | 0mo | $457,932 | $287 | 58 |
| 3263 W Molino Rd | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,595 (+5%) | 1mo | $454,903 | $285 | 57 |
| 4216 W Erik Ln | 0.70mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,568 (+3%) | 3mo | $409,990 | $261 | 55 |
| 3655 W Lapis Dr | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,672 (+10%) | 0mo | $473,000 | $283 | 54 |
| 4169 W Erik Ln | 0.66mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,424 (-6%) | 1mo | $414,990 | $291 | 53 |
| 3342 W Mary Dr | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,687 (+11%) | 1mo | $439,900 | $261 | 48 |
| 4447 W Mountain Laural Dr | 0.53mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,735 (+14%) | 0mo | $395,000 | $228 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 19.4%
- Equity multiple
- 2.58×
- Total profit
- $163,575
- Equity at exit
- $333,325
- IRR
- 17.8%
- Equity multiple
- 5.93×
- Total profit
- $510,978
- Equity at exit
- $718,829
Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85144
- Home prices YoY
- 7.2%
- Active inventory
- 475
- Price-to-rent
- 15.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,011 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,940
- Tax from tax record
- −$87 /mo · $1,043/yr
- Insurance
- −$154
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$422
- Net cashflow
- $-592
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-383 | -5% $-488 | +0% $-592 | +5% $-697 | +10% $-802 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-751 | -5% $-672 | +0% $-592 | +5% $-513 | +10% $-434 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-406 | -0.5pp $-498 | base $-592 | +0.5pp $-688 | +1.0pp $-786 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $92,500
- Closing costs
- $11,100
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2010 | $1,850 | $0.92 | 5d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $1,550 | $0.91 | 25d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1852 | $1,795 | $0.97 | 44d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1527 | $1,825 | $1.20 | 5d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1868 | $1,975 | $1.06 | 5d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1504 | $1,925 | $1.28 | 44d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1998 | $2,450 | $1.23 | 44d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1918 | $2,700 | $1.41 | 25d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1343 | $1,895 | $1.41 | 5d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1595 | $2,500 | $1.57 | 44d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1810 | $2,075 | $1.15 | 5d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1909 | $1,900 | $1.00 | 15d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1909 | $1,900 | $1.00 | 13d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1454 | $1,915 | $1.32 | 44d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2213 | $3,900 | $1.76 | 1d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1925 | $1,908 | $0.99 | 44d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1290 | $1,700 | $1.32 | 44d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1721 | $1,980 | $1.15 | 3d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 33948 N Beeblossom Trl San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1348 | $1,850 | $1.37 | 17d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2230 | $2,500 | $1.12 | 44d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1928 | $1,850 | $0.96 | 44d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1806 | $2,449 | $1.36 | 3d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1453 | $1,750 | $1.20 | 12d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2049 | $2,450 | $1.20 | 44d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1600 | $1,850 | $1.16 | 22d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1765 | $1,955 | $1.11 | 11d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1765 | $1,880 | $1.07 | 3d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $1,700 | $1.13 | 15d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 2574 W Sawtooth Way San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1326 | $1,995 | $1.50 | 44d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1609 | $2,395 | $1.49 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1884 | $1,846 | $0.98 | 44d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1766 | $1,975 | $1.12 | 44d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 4287 W Jeanette Ln San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2049 | $2,450 | $1.20 | 19d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 34437 N Picket Post Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1507 | $1,650 | $1.09 | 44d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 4151 W Goldmine Mountain Dr San Tan Valley, AZ | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2248 | $2,256 | $1.00 | 13d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1832 | $2,000 | $1.09 | 11d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1838 | $2,450 | $1.33 | 44d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 4265 W Janie St San Tan Valley, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1838 | $2,100 | $1.14 | 25d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 2521 W Desert Spring Way San Tan Valley, AZ | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2067 | $2,175 | $1.05 | 25d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 2899 W White Canyon Rd San Tan Valley, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1981 | $1,950 | $0.98 | 3d | 1 | 0.99mi |
Listing history 25 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $370,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $370,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $370,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $370,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $370,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $370,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $370,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $370,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $370,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $370,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $370,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $370,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $370,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $370,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-05-15$370,000 Active 580-char remark
-
2024-01-05soldstatus $355,000 Closed 697-char remark
Show marketing remark (697 chars)
Your new home or sweet home away from home awaits with fresh interior & exterior paint, carpet, and a new HVAC - this home is turn key ready for stress free enjoyment. The Great Room floorplan features a split bedroom arrangement; Owners Suite and 3 addtional bedrooms! You'll appreciate all the storage areas, expansive nuetral tile in the hall and walkways, and especially the beautiful granite and stainless steel appliances. Home is perfect north/south oriented with glimpses of the San Tan Mountain in the backyard. Nearby is the heated community pool with lots of parks and walkways in the community. And minutes away is shopping and dining, and the fabulous San Tan Regional Park.
-
2024-01-04soldstatus $355,000
-
2023-12-14status Pending 697-char remark
Show marketing remark (697 chars)
Your new home or sweet home away from home awaits with fresh interior & exterior paint, carpet, and a new HVAC - this home is turn key ready for stress free enjoyment. The Great Room floorplan features a split bedroom arrangement; Owners Suite and 3 addtional bedrooms! You'll appreciate all the storage areas, expansive nuetral tile in the hall and walkways, and especially the beautiful granite and stainless steel appliances. Home is perfect north/south oriented with glimpses of the San Tan Mountain in the backyard. Nearby is the heated community pool with lots of parks and walkways in the community. And minutes away is shopping and dining, and the fabulous San Tan Regional Park.
-
2023-12-01price $359,900 697-char remark
Show marketing remark (697 chars)
Your new home or sweet home away from home awaits with fresh interior & exterior paint, carpet, and a new HVAC - this home is turn key ready for stress free enjoyment. The Great Room floorplan features a split bedroom arrangement; Owners Suite and 3 addtional bedrooms! You'll appreciate all the storage areas, expansive nuetral tile in the hall and walkways, and especially the beautiful granite and stainless steel appliances. Home is perfect north/south oriented with glimpses of the San Tan Mountain in the backyard. Nearby is the heated community pool with lots of parks and walkways in the community. And minutes away is shopping and dining, and the fabulous San Tan Regional Park.
-
2023-10-24$365,000 Active 697-char remark
Show marketing remark (697 chars)
Your new home or sweet home away from home awaits with fresh interior & exterior paint, carpet, and a new HVAC - this home is turn key ready for stress free enjoyment. The Great Room floorplan features a split bedroom arrangement; Owners Suite and 3 addtional bedrooms! You'll appreciate all the storage areas, expansive nuetral tile in the hall and walkways, and especially the beautiful granite and stainless steel appliances. Home is perfect north/south oriented with glimpses of the San Tan Mountain in the backyard. Nearby is the heated community pool with lots of parks and walkways in the community. And minutes away is shopping and dining, and the fabulous San Tan Regional Park.
-
2011-07-12soldstatus $73,100 Closed
Show marketing remark (747 chars)
Nice property in popular Skyline Ranch. Home is on an interior lot, with North-South exposure. Nicely appointed home, with good split floor plan. Home has large great room, opening to eat in kitchen. Master bedroom at the rear of the home, and 3 bedrooms on opposite side, all on single level. Low maintenance landscaping on front and back. Home is clean and move in ready! FNMA promo is back Owner Occ Buyer to Receive 3.5% of purchase price Towards closing costs with all offers accepted and closed by June 30. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Prop may be approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Investors purchase More properties with lwr dwn payment req. No MI & No Appraisal Required.
-
2011-06-20status Pending
Show marketing remark (747 chars)
Nice property in popular Skyline Ranch. Home is on an interior lot, with North-South exposure. Nicely appointed home, with good split floor plan. Home has large great room, opening to eat in kitchen. Master bedroom at the rear of the home, and 3 bedrooms on opposite side, all on single level. Low maintenance landscaping on front and back. Home is clean and move in ready! FNMA promo is back Owner Occ Buyer to Receive 3.5% of purchase price Towards closing costs with all offers accepted and closed by June 30. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Prop may be approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Investors purchase More properties with lwr dwn payment req. No MI & No Appraisal Required.
-
2011-06-20status Active
Show marketing remark (747 chars)
Nice property in popular Skyline Ranch. Home is on an interior lot, with North-South exposure. Nicely appointed home, with good split floor plan. Home has large great room, opening to eat in kitchen. Master bedroom at the rear of the home, and 3 bedrooms on opposite side, all on single level. Low maintenance landscaping on front and back. Home is clean and move in ready! FNMA promo is back Owner Occ Buyer to Receive 3.5% of purchase price Towards closing costs with all offers accepted and closed by June 30. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Prop may be approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Investors purchase More properties with lwr dwn payment req. No MI & No Appraisal Required.
-
2011-06-09status Pending
Show marketing remark (747 chars)
Nice property in popular Skyline Ranch. Home is on an interior lot, with North-South exposure. Nicely appointed home, with good split floor plan. Home has large great room, opening to eat in kitchen. Master bedroom at the rear of the home, and 3 bedrooms on opposite side, all on single level. Low maintenance landscaping on front and back. Home is clean and move in ready! FNMA promo is back Owner Occ Buyer to Receive 3.5% of purchase price Towards closing costs with all offers accepted and closed by June 30. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Prop may be approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Investors purchase More properties with lwr dwn payment req. No MI & No Appraisal Required.
-
2011-05-16$71,500 Active
Show marketing remark (747 chars)
Nice property in popular Skyline Ranch. Home is on an interior lot, with North-South exposure. Nicely appointed home, with good split floor plan. Home has large great room, opening to eat in kitchen. Master bedroom at the rear of the home, and 3 bedrooms on opposite side, all on single level. Low maintenance landscaping on front and back. Home is clean and move in ready! FNMA promo is back Owner Occ Buyer to Receive 3.5% of purchase price Towards closing costs with all offers accepted and closed by June 30. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Prop may be approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Investors purchase More properties with lwr dwn payment req. No MI & No Appraisal Required.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,043 · $87/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,442 · $204/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,399/yr (+$117/mo · 134.2%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,135
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,726
- − Property taxes
- −$1,043
- − Insurance
- −$1,850
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,931
- − Management
- −$1,931
- − Depreciation
- −$10,764
- Taxable loss
- −$14,109
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,386
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,724/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Florence Unified School District (4437)
- NCES district ID
- 0402920
- Math proficiency
- 16% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $54,426
- Composite
- 18.31/100
- National rank
- #8950
- State rank
- #178 of 249 in AZ
Livability — San Tan Valley
- Score
- 54/100
- State rank
- #282
- US rank
- #24192
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- San Tan Valley, AZ
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Not yet ingested
- Political lean
- —
- Race & ethnicity
- —
- Common origin
- —
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 24.94%
- Current HPI
- 372.52
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
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| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
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| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
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Price history
+417.5% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-15 Listed $370,000 FSBO.com
- 2024-01-05 Sold (MLS) $355,000 ARMLS
- 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $355,000 Public Records
- 2023-12-14 Pending — ARMLS
- 2023-12-01 Price Changed $359,900 ARMLS
- 2023-10-24 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
- 2011-07-12 Sold (MLS) $73,100 ARMLS
- 2011-06-20 Pending — ARMLS
- 2011-06-20 Relisted — ARMLS
- 2011-06-09 Pending — ARMLS
- 2011-05-16 Listed $71,500 ARMLS
Property tax history
-0.5%/yrLatest (2025): $1,043 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…