4656 S Dillon Ct Unit D

Aurora, CO 80015

$170,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 446 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 352 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,632/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-423/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-423/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (4.0% below list).
• It's been on market 352 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#70 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Cherry Creek School District No. 5 In The County Of Arapah (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #11 of 86 in CO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sagebrush Elementary School (math 15% / reading 17%, grade F, #781 of 966 statewide, top 82%, 417 students, 49% FRL); Laredo Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #129 of 270 statewide, top 51%, 920 students, 44% FRL); Smoky Hill High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade F, #155 of 381 statewide, top 42%, 2,252 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 21% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cherry Creek School District No. 5 In The County Of Arapah average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,927 units permitted in Arapahoe County in 2024 (1,525 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arapahoe County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 352 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?