Saxony Plan

Winfield, IN 46307

$361,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,992 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 290 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-824/mo
• Annual: $-9,887/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.31%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $119,006

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $362k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-824 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#121 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Winfield Elementary School (561 students, 18% FRL); Colonel John Wheeler Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #76 of 330 statewide, top 23%, 1,046 students, 24% FRL); Crown Point High School (math 51% / reading 80%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 2,948 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.