Saxony Plan · Winfield, IN 46307

$361,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily · 290 Days on market

$125/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Saxony at Grand Ridge, a stylish ranch-style new home for sale, offering 1,992 square feet of comfortable living space. As a leading new homebuilder in northwest Indiana, we have designed this home with modern convenience and functionality in mind. Upon entry, you'll be welcomed into the open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, breakfast area and great room. This flowing design creates a spacious and inviting atmosphere, perfect for everyday activities and gatherings. Enhance your living space by opting for an optional sunroom, extending the home's footprint and providing additional space for relaxation and entertainment. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bath and a walk-in closet for comfort and privacy. Beyond the laundry room and foyer, you'll find two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath, providing flexibility for guests or family members. Convenient features such as a pantry in the kitchen and extra storage in the attached two-car garage ensure that everything you need is within reach but neatly out of sight. Experience the charm and functionality of ranch living in the Saxony at Grand Ridge, where thoughtful design meets modern comfort. Discover why northwest Indiana new homes from your trusted new homebuilder are the ideal choice for your next home.

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Walk-in closet
• Pantry in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OPTIONAL SUNROOM
• EN-SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PANTRY IN KITCHEN
• EXTRA STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $361,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $425,022.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-824 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#121 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Winfield Elementary School (561 students, 18% FRL); Colonel John Wheeler Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #76 of 330 statewide, top 23%, 1,046 students, 24% FRL); Crown Point High School (math 51% / reading 80%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 2,948 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,334 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.31%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,022
• List price: $361,995
• Delta: -14.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4303 E 102nd Ave	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+0%)	16mo	$420,000	$210	62
10021 Clay St	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,086 (+5%)	1mo	$663,850	$318	58
5262 E 109th Pl Unit 109b	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-13%)	12mo	$310,000	$179	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-122,560
• Equity at exit: $63,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-179,227
• Equity at exit: $36,748

Cash invested: $119,006 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46307

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,876

Max offer price $305,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-530	-5% $-677	+0% $-824	+5% $-971	+10% $-1,118
Rent	-10% $-1,048	-5% $-936	+0% $-824	+5% $-712	+10% $-600
Rate	-1.0pp $-610	-0.5pp $-716	base $-824	+0.5pp $-934	+1.0pp $-1,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,256
• Closing costs: $12,751
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10981 Thomas St Crown Point, IN	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,900	$1.62	0d	1	1.11mi
11087 Thomas St Winfield, IN	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,175	$1.76	5d	1	1.18mi
11290 Green Pl Winfield, IN	4.0	2.5	2201	$3,175	$1.44	0d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $361,995 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,995 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,995 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,995 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $361,995 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $361,995 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $361,995 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $361,995 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $361,995 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $361,995 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $361,995 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $361,995 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $361,995 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $361,995 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $361,995 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    price $361,995 1320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1320 chars)

    Welcome to the Saxony at Grand Ridge, a stylish ranch-style new home for sale, offering 1,992 square feet of comfortable living space. As a leading new homebuilder in northwest Indiana, we have designed this home with modern convenience and functionality in mind. Upon entry, you'll be welcomed into the open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, breakfast area and great room. This flowing design creates a spacious and inviting atmosphere, perfect for everyday activities and gatherings. Enhance your living space by opting for an optional sunroom, extending the home's footprint and providing additional space for relaxation and entertainment. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bath and a walk-in closet for comfort and privacy. Beyond the laundry room and foyer, you'll find two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath, providing flexibility for guests or family members. Convenient features such as a pantry in the kitchen and extra storage in the attached two-car garage ensure that everything you need is within reach but neatly out of sight. Experience the charm and functionality of ranch living in the Saxony at Grand Ridge, where thoughtful design meets modern comfort. Discover why northwest Indiana new homes from your trusted new homebuilder are the ideal choice for your next home.

17. 2025-10-14
    price $359,995 1320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1320 chars)

    Welcome to the Saxony at Grand Ridge, a stylish ranch-style new home for sale, offering 1,992 square feet of comfortable living space. As a leading new homebuilder in northwest Indiana, we have designed this home with modern convenience and functionality in mind. Upon entry, you'll be welcomed into the open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, breakfast area and great room. This flowing design creates a spacious and inviting atmosphere, perfect for everyday activities and gatherings. Enhance your living space by opting for an optional sunroom, extending the home's footprint and providing additional space for relaxation and entertainment. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bath and a walk-in closet for comfort and privacy. Beyond the laundry room and foyer, you'll find two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath, providing flexibility for guests or family members. Convenient features such as a pantry in the kitchen and extra storage in the attached two-car garage ensure that everything you need is within reach but neatly out of sight. Experience the charm and functionality of ranch living in the Saxony at Grand Ridge, where thoughtful design meets modern comfort. Discover why northwest Indiana new homes from your trusted new homebuilder are the ideal choice for your next home.

18. 2025-09-04
    listed $357,995 Active 1320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1320 chars)

    Welcome to the Saxony at Grand Ridge, a stylish ranch-style new home for sale, offering 1,992 square feet of comfortable living space. As a leading new homebuilder in northwest Indiana, we have designed this home with modern convenience and functionality in mind. Upon entry, you'll be welcomed into the open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, breakfast area and great room. This flowing design creates a spacious and inviting atmosphere, perfect for everyday activities and gatherings. Enhance your living space by opting for an optional sunroom, extending the home's footprint and providing additional space for relaxation and entertainment. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bath and a walk-in closet for comfort and privacy. Beyond the laundry room and foyer, you'll find two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath, providing flexibility for guests or family members. Convenient features such as a pantry in the kitchen and extra storage in the attached two-car garage ensure that everything you need is within reach but neatly out of sight. Experience the charm and functionality of ranch living in the Saxony at Grand Ridge, where thoughtful design meets modern comfort. Discover why northwest Indiana new homes from your trusted new homebuilder are the ideal choice for your next home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,808
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,720
• − Management: −$2,720
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$17,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crown Point Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1802490
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,148
• Composite: 49.55/100
• National rank: #1990
• State rank: #23 of 301 in IN

Livability — Winfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #6471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winfield, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 71,673
• Household income: $107,800
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 705.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.91%
• Current HPI: 226.0335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $361,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $359,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Listed $357,995 Zillow