107 Richmond Rd

Front Royal, VA 22630

$350,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,435 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-315/mo
• Annual: $-3,776/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 496 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.