6278 Thornhedge Dr

South Fulton, GA 30296

$229,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$509
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-497/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-497/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $229k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.