161 Juanita Way

Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$290,700D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,524
• Tax + insurance: −$484
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-772/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $81,396

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-772/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (14.1% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1180 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.