161 Juanita Way · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$318,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $172/sqft · 11% below area Est $358k · 11% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 979 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,730 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,769
• List price: $318,999
• Delta: -10.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
181 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	1mo	$320,999	$170	92
197 Juanita Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$293,999	$159	88
205 Juanita Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$300,999	$163	87
201 Juanita Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$312,999	$169	87
195 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$284,999	$171	81
211 Juanita Way	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	3mo	$326,999	$172	76
243 Juanita Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	1mo	$299,999	$158	75
100 Ellendale Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	2mo	$280,000	$168	70
213 Juanita Way	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+9%)	3mo	$350,999	$173	66
239 Juanita Way	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+9%)	1mo	$328,999	$163	66
245 Juanita Way	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+9%)	1mo	$331,999	$164	66
241 Juanita Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-12%)	1mo	$311,999	$191	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-64,715
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-72,965
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,827

Max offer price $289,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-95	+0% $-205	+5% $-316	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-307	+0% $-205	+5% $-104	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-124	base $-205	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,300	$1.56	4d	1	0.10mi
247 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	5.0	3.0	2210	$2,500	$1.13	19d	1	0.31mi
243 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$2,300	$1.21	24d	1	0.31mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	6d	1	0.70mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	45d	1	0.72mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	45d	1	0.73mi
409 S Pear St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2326	$2,500	$1.07	6d	1	0.81mi
247 Sunday Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,600	$1.90	0d	1	1.03mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	26d	1	1.10mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	26d	1	1.13mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	0d	11	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $318,999 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,999 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,999 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,999 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,999 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,999 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,999 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $318,999 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $322,999 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $324,999 New 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$7,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with a pristine exterior, new roof, flooring, and interior walls/paint. It offers a spacious open-concept layout and is ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping enhancement — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior decor — Adding interior decor can make the home more inviting and appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can add value and appeal to the home, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping enhancement — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior decor — Adding interior decor can make the home more inviting and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can add value and appeal to the home, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $322,999 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listed $324,999 LERA