161 Juanita Way · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$310,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $168/sqft · 12% below area Est $354k · 12% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,392 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,032
• List price: $310,999
• Delta: -12.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
193 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$289,999	$157	97
159 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	0mo	$292,999	$155	93
173 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	2mo	$301,999	$160	92
197 Juanita Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$293,999	$159	86
189 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	0mo	$277,999	$167	82
165 Juanita Way	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	2mo	$311,999	$187	81
195 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	3mo	$284,999	$171	80
243 Juanita Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	3mo	$299,999	$158	74
239 Juanita Way	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+9%)	2mo	$328,999	$163	64
245 Juanita Way	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+9%)	3mo	$331,999	$164	64
241 Juanita Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-12%)	2mo	$311,999	$191	60
511 Olive St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-14%)	2mo	$665,000	$419	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,584
• Equity at exit: $46,371

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,037
• Equity at exit: $26,890

Cash invested: $87,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,500 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,631
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,665/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,757

Max offer price $283,180

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-85	+0% $-192	+5% $-300	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-292	+0% $-192	+5% $-93	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-113	base $-192	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,750
• Closing costs: $9,330
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,300	$1.56	52d	1	0.10mi
114 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,000	$1.34	21d	1	0.17mi
123 Aidan Trl Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,295	$1.38	18d	1	0.22mi
247 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	5.0	3.0	2210	$2,500	$1.13	67d	1	0.31mi
243 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$2,300	$1.21	71d	1	0.31mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	54d	1	0.70mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	93d	1	0.72mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	93d	1	0.73mi
409 S Pear St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2326	$2,500	$1.07	54d	1	0.81mi
247 Sunday Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,600	$1.90	9d	1	1.03mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	73d	1	1.10mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	73d	1	1.13mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	46d	1	1.13mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	9d	10	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $87.50 paid quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450Community amenities include pool, park/playground, and other community features

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerCity garbage serviceCentric gas supplierCentral electricity supplier
• Home design: New constructionCement fiber exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofSubdivision: Friendship Oaks
• Construction: Built by LennarApproximate age: new
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 11Bedroom 3: 10 x 13Bedroom 4: 12 x 11Master bedroom dimensions: 16 x 13
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planBreakfast barOne living areaUtility room insideCable TV availableAll bedrooms downstairsWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $310,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $310,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $310,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $310,999 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   statusdays on market $310,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $310,999 Price Change 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $310,999 Price Change 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $310,999 Price Change 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $310,999 Price Change 109 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $310,999 Price Change 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $310,999 Price Change 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    pricestatus $310,999 Price Change 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $309,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $309,999 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    statusdays on market $309,999 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 100 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 99 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 98 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 97 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 96 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 95 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 94 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 93 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 92 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    price $309,999 Price Change 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $308,999 Price Change 90 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $308,999 Price Change 89 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $308,999 Price Change 88 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    price $308,999 Price Change 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 86 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 85 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 84 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,999 Price Change 83 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    pricestatus $309,999 Price Change 82 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $318,999 Active 82 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $318,999 Active 81 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $318,999 Active 80 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $318,999 Active 79 DOM
40. 2026-06-24
    days on market $318,999 Active 77 DOM
41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $318,999 Active 75 DOM
42. 2026-06-21
    days on market $318,999 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $318,999 Active 71 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $318,999 Active 70 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $318,999 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $318,999 Active 68 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $318,999 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $318,999 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,999 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $318,999 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,421
• − Property taxes: −$4,665
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,413
• − Management: −$2,413
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,047
• Taxable loss: −$7,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with a pristine exterior, new roof, flooring, and interior walls/paint. It offers a spacious open-concept layout and is ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping enhancement — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior decor — Adding interior decor can make the home more inviting and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can add value and appeal to the home, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fredericksburg El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Fredericksburg Middle C- TX #392/1,662 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Fredericksburg H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 28,213 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $87.50 paid quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450Community amenities include pool, park/playground, and other community features

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerCity garbage serviceCentric gas supplierCentral electricity supplier
• Home design: New constructionCement fiber exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofSubdivision: Friendship Oaks
• Construction: Built by LennarApproximate age: new
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 11Bedroom 3: 10 x 13Bedroom 4: 12 x 11Master bedroom dimensions: 16 x 13
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planBreakfast barOne living areaUtility room insideCable TV availableAll bedrooms downstairsWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main level

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-04 Price Changed $308,999 LERA
• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $309,999 LERA
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $318,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $322,999 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listed $324,999 LERA