245 Birch St

Trumann, AR 72472

$49,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $424/mo
• Annual: $5,092/yr
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.44%
• DSCR: 2.62
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($940 rent vs $50k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#353 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Trumann School District (town): math 28% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #178 of 238 in AR (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trumann Prek And Parent Center (94 students, 97% FRL); Trumann Intermediate School7-8 (math 25% / reading 27%, grade F, #159 of 201 statewide, top 80%, 300 students, 100% FRL); Trumann High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #159 of 292 statewide, top 55%, 457 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Poinsett County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Poinsett County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $50k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.4% in Trumann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.