245 Birch St · Trumann, AR 72472

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1984 8,712 sqft lot Est $84k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity in this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on a nice corner lot. Remodel has already been started for you with new paint throughout and some updated flooring. Needs some TLC and it will be ready to go.

Key facts

• New paint
• Updated flooring
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW PAINT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• DETACHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Corner lot; Level lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($940 rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.4% in Trumann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#353 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Trumann School District (town): math 28% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #178 of 238 in AR (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trumann Prek And Parent Center (94 students, 97% FRL); Trumann Intermediate School7-8 (math 25% / reading 27%, grade F, #159 of 201 statewide, top 80%, 300 students, 100% FRL); Trumann High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #159 of 292 statewide, top 55%, 457 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Poinsett County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Poinsett County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $50k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.44%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Paula Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,026 (-1%)	7mo	$79,000	$77	89
342 Park St	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,068 (+3%)	12mo	$86,500	$81	72
346 Cash Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,025 (-1%)	13mo	$119,900	$117	72
512 Wayne St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-10%)	4mo	$59,688	$64	69
425 E Speedway	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+13%)	6mo	$85,000	$72	68
313 Olive St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-2%)	7mo	$65,000	$64	57
504 Locust	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+6%)	4mo	$68,000	$62	51
404 Patterson St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-4%)	8mo	$113,500	$114	50
118 Seaton St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (+13%)	11mo	$115,400	$98	42
605 Paschal	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+5%)	12mo	$124,900	$114	42
605 Paschal	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+5%)	12mo	$124,900	$114	42
215 Delta Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,150 (+11%)	12mo	$79,500	$69	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $18,936
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $51,278
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72472

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $428/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $438	+0% $424	+5% $410	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $387	+0% $424	+5% $461	+10% $499
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $437	base $424	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $49,900 Under Contract 6 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 New Listing 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,900 New Listing 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $49,900 Active
5. 1996-03-21
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$428
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$902
• − Management: −$902
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $4,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trumann School District
• NCES district ID: 0500047
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,307
• Composite: 22.33/100
• National rank: #8130
• State rank: #178 of 238 in AR

Livability — Trumann

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #21973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trumann, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,868

Population outlook (Poinsett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,998 people
• By 2030: 22,356 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 21,150 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 20,035 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 17,745 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,358 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Greek 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Poinsett

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.4% · R 81.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.2pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+59.8 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+27.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.69%
• Current HPI: 208.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+256.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $49,900 NEABOR MLS
• 1996-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $428 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.