225 Shaw Rd

Tusculum, TN 37641

$169,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-141/mo
• Annual: $-1,691/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chuckey Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 354 students, 0% FRL); Chuckey Doak Middle School (math 41% / reading 25%, grade F, #77 of 333 statewide, top 24%, 388 students, 0% FRL); Chuckey Doak High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 592 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 58% district-wide (58 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $169k implies a 1107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.1% in Tusculum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.