225 Shaw Rd · Tusculum, TN 37641

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1996 0.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is off the beaten path, lots of space. Doublewide. Has countryside views. Investment.

Key facts

• Remodeled retreat
• New cabinets
• New countertops

Tags

• REMODELED RETREAT
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: TV antenna

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface
• Security: Security gate; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide); One level; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation (see remarks); Built as a manufactured structure
• Exterior features: Garden; Enclosed porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Storm door(s); Full fencing; Poultry coop; Storage; Workshop; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Double-pane windows; Has basement (dirt floor)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.1% in Tusculum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chuckey Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 354 students, 0% FRL); Chuckey Doak Middle School (math 41% / reading 25%, grade F, #77 of 333 statewide, top 24%, 388 students, 0% FRL); Chuckey Doak High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 592 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 58% district-wide (58 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $169k implies a 1107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $23,232
• Equity at exit: $88,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $81,531
• Equity at exit: $147,222

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37641

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $148,609

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Williamson Rd Chuckey, TN	3.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	21d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2026-04-02
    price $177,400
18. 2020-04-20
    soldstatus $14,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Property is off the beaten path, lots of space. Doublewide. Has countryside views. Investment.

19. 2019-11-09
    listed $12,900 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Property is off the beaten path, lots of space. Doublewide. Has countryside views. Investment.

20. 2019-09-30
    soldstatus $13,500
21. 2019-08-22
    listed $28,000
22. 2001-08-27
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County
• NCES district ID: 4701470
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,517
• Composite: 21.3/100
• National rank: #8388
• State rank: #83 of 139 in TN

Livability — Tusculum

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #11305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,110

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,624 people
• By 2030: 68,114 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 66,167 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 63,038 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 55,274 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 45,527 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 16.6% · R 82.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+61.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.29%
• Current HPI: 321.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1033.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $170,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $177,400 TVRMLS
• 2020-04-20 Sold (MLS) $14,000 TVRMLS
• 2019-11-09 Listed $12,900 TVRMLS
• 2019-09-30 Sold (MLS) $13,500 TVRMLS
• 2019-08-22 Listed $28,000 TVRMLS
• 2001-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $151 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.