4631 Connection Rd

Wildwood, FL 34785

$299,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,501/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax + insurance: −$509
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-197/mo
• Annual: $-2,359/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $85,477

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); Wildwood Middle/ High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 843 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sumter average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,501/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.