4631 Connection Rd · Wildwood, FL 34785

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,500 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a spacious and inviting 4-bedroom, open-concept and all concrete block constructed home where design meets functional elegance. The seamless flow between living areas and the kitchen creates an expansive environment for both daily living and entertaining. The kitchen is a focal point of this home and designed for style and convenience including a stainless-steel range, microwave, built-in dishwasher. Four well-appointed bedrooms and located in the front of the home and nearby a full bathroom. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom, double vanity, and walk-in closet. The laundry room is complete with a washer and dryer hook up. This residence embodies the perfect harmony of openness and privacy. The Cali is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CRC057592.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk-in closet
• Built-in dishwasher

Tags

• ALL CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTED
• STAINLESS-STEEL RANGE
• BUILT-IN DISHWASHER
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA fee $63 (required); association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction (projected completion July 30, 2026); One story; West-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by DR Horton INC (model: Cali)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.13 acre; Lot area about 511 square meters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Home includes irrigation equipment; Home comes with builder warranty
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,276.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); Wildwood Middle/ High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 843 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sumter average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,501/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,142 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,276
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4624 Connection Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$305,990	$167	98
8761 Triumph Cir	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$310,870	$170	97
8757 Triumph Cir	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$302,990	$166	97
8745 Triumph Cir	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$299,990	$164	96
4649 Parkview Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	3mo	$304,990	$167	95
4626 Parkview Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	3mo	$297,490	$163	94
8725 Triumph Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	2mo	$306,990	$168	94
8717 Triumph Cir	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	2mo	$306,990	$168	93
4628 Connection Rd	0.03mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (+14%)	1mo	$311,070	$150	66
7842 June Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+11%)	3mo	$354,000	$174	55
8128 Penrose Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-12%)	2mo	$267,000	$165	49
2247 Shanewood Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-9%)	1mo	$345,000	$208	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-62,288
• Equity at exit: $45,518

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-71,592
• Equity at exit: $26,395

Cash invested: $85,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,579/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,750

Max offer price $276,832

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,319
• Closing costs: $9,158
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit C1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,801	$1.25	21d	1	0.45mi
8073 Patagonia Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1638	$2,645	$1.61	21d	1	0.49mi
5222 Inglewood Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1693	$2,455	$1.45	21d	1	0.50mi
8061 Patagonia Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1855	$2,585	$1.39	21d	1	0.51mi
5234 Inglewood Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1693	$2,475	$1.46	21d	1	0.53mi
5255 Inglewood Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,410	$1.47	21d	1	0.57mi
5192 Hartwood Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,590	$1.65	21d	1	0.58mi
8062 Rexwood Rd Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1638	$2,345	$1.43	21d	1	0.60mi
5115 Spanish Harbor Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,680	$1.70	21d	29	0.71mi
706 Stanley Ave Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,300	$1.43	21d	1	0.71mi
2393 Carriage Hill Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$4,300	$2.64	21d	1	0.77mi
5267 Dragonfly Dr Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$1,945	$1.15	21d	1	0.85mi
5339 Loblolly Ln Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.87mi
2393 Highbanks Ct The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.89mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	21d	1	0.93mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	21d	1	0.94mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	21d	1	0.98mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,384	$2.20	21d	28	1.07mi
2192 Quinn Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$5,600	$3.48	21d	1	1.10mi
8362 Gower Trl Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,695	$1.16	21d	1	1.14mi
8396 Gower Trl Unit 1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$1,795	$1.05	21d	1	1.16mi
208 Mason St Wildwood, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	2250	$1,975	$0.88	21d	2	1.20mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,759	$1.76	21d	22	1.22mi
3234 Evenmore Way Wildwood, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	21d	1	1.32mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	21d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $299,990 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,990 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,990 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,990 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $305,990 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $306,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $306,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $306,990 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $306,990 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $306,990 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $306,990 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $306,990 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $308,295 Active 1106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1106 chars)

    Welcome to a spacious and inviting 4-bedroom, open-concept and all concrete block constructed home where design meets functional elegance. The seamless flow between living areas and the kitchen creates an expansive environment for both daily living and entertaining. The kitchen is a focal point of this home and designed for style and convenience including a stainless-steel range, microwave, built-in dishwasher. Four well-appointed bedrooms and located in the front of the home and nearby a full bathroom. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom, double vanity, and walk-in closet. The laundry room is complete with a washer and dryer hook up. This residence embodies the perfect harmony of openness and privacy. The Cali is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CRC057592.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $308,295 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,100
• − Property taxes: −$4,579
• − Insurance: −$1,526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,881
• Taxable loss: −$7,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $308,295 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Listed $308,295 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid