3583 Austin Rd #89

Geneva, OH 44041

$65,230C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,549/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$342
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $773/mo
• Annual: $9,275/yr
• Cap rate: 20.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.78%
• DSCR: 3.26
• 1% rule: 2.37%
• Cash to close: $18,264

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $450 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in OH, #4,770 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Geneva Area City (town): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #362 of 656 in OH (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 4.6% in Geneva — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.