Carlsbad Plan

Plant City, FL 33565

$392,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$650
• HOA: −$148
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-627/mo
• Annual: $-7,528/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $109,211

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $393k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-627 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $281k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 501 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At $2,805/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.