Carlsbad Plan · Plant City, FL 33565

$392,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · SingleFamily · 236 Days on market

Good condition $148/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover more room to live, play and grow in the 1-story Carlsbad floor plan, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage and 2,115 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept great room flows into the dining area, kitchen with an island and a covered lanai, perfect for indoor/outdoor living. 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom are near the front of the home, while the private primary suite is tucked away with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-inspired bathroom. A versatile flex room gives you space to design a home office, gym, or craft room-whatever fits your lifestyle. Plus, enjoy the convenience of the laundry room and entry just off your garage. And, you have options! • Optional gourmet kitchen • Optional outdoor kitchen • And more!

Key facts

• Versatile flex room
• Covered lanai
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $392,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $404,431.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $393k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-786 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $273,010 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.33%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,431
• List price: $392,999
• Delta: -2.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3501 Austin Trail Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (-9%)	3mo	$530,000	$276	66
3021 Parapet Terrace Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-16%)	2mo	$371,999	$210	63
3512 Lumber Falls Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,394 (+13%)	1mo	$479,999	$201	58
3437 Lumber Falls Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,394 (+13%)	2mo	$444,149	$186	57
3434 Lumber Falls Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,399 (+13%)	6mo	$496,999	$207	54
3419 Walnut Round Pl	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-16%)	6mo	$390,039	$221	48
3520 Thistle Bank Ct	0.84mi	4/2.5	2,045 (-3%)	21mo	$411,740	$201	40
3920 Harvest Hearth Pl	1.09mi	4/3.0	2,537 (+20%)	8mo	$454,545	$179	29
3323 Ivy Hollow Dr	0.87mi	4/2.0	1,846 (-13%)	18mo	$352,990	$191	29
3436 Ivy Hollow Dr	0.93mi	4/2.5	2,305 (+9%)	23mo	$345,990	$150	29
3513 Thistle Bank Ct	0.83mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-14%)	19mo	$355,215	$194	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-115,473
• Equity at exit: $60,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-164,489
• Equity at exit: $34,968

Cash invested: $113,241 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $411,999 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,121
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$506 /mo · $6,066/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,725

Max offer price $290,673

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-507	-5% $-646	+0% $-786	+5% $-926	+10% $-1,066
Rent	-10% $-1,002	-5% $-894	+0% $-786	+5% $-678	+10% $-570
Rate	-1.0pp $-582	-0.5pp $-683	base $-786	+0.5pp $-891	+1.0pp $-998

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,108
• Closing costs: $12,133
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3521 Maple Grove Way Plant City, FL	3.0	2.5	1994	$2,500	$1.25	75d	1	0.73mi
3521 Maple Grove Way Plant City, FL	3.0	3.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	37d	1	0.73mi
3531 White Dandelion Ct Plant City, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,300	$1.37	6d	1	0.83mi
3551 Marigold Patch Ct Plant City, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,200	$1.31	144d	1	0.86mi
3507 Marigold Patch Ct Plant City, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,200	$1.31	10d	1	0.89mi
3546 Marigold Patch Ct Plant City, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,200	$1.32	165d	1	0.90mi
3546 Marigold Patch Ct Plant City, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,200	$1.31	162d	1	0.90mi
3534 Marigold Patch Ct Plant City, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,200	$1.31	6d	1	0.90mi
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	165d	1	0.94mi
3410 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,650	$1.44	75d	1	1.00mi
3338 Shady Sunrise Loop Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,600	$1.10	10d	1	1.01mi
3329 Shady Sunrise Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,450	$1.62	10d	1	1.03mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	165d	1	1.06mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	165d	1	1.12mi
3911 Midway Rd Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$2,800	$1.37	1d	1	1.28mi
4005 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,450	$1.57	10d	1	1.30mi
4005 Westwood Fields Loop Unit 4005 Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	165d	1	1.30mi
4008 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,250	$1.44	121d	1	1.33mi
4010 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	118d	1	1.33mi
4025 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,425	$1.55	162d	1	1.36mi
4027 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$3,200	$2.04	162d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $148/mo · $1,776/yr

• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $392,999 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $392,999 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $392,999 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $392,999 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $392,999 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $392,999 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $392,999 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $392,999 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $392,999 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $392,999 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $392,999 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $392,999 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $392,999 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $392,999 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $392,999 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $392,999 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $392,999 Active 219 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $392,999 Active 218 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $392,999 Active 217 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $392,999 Active 216 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $392,999 Active 215 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $392,999 Active 214 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $392,999 Active 213 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $392,999 Active 212 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $392,999 Active 211 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $392,999 Active 210 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $392,999 Active 209 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $392,999 Active 208 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $392,999 Active 207 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $392,999 Active 206 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $392,999 Active 205 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $392,999 Active 204 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $392,999 Active 203 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $392,999 Active 202 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $392,999 Active 200 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $392,999 Active 199 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $392,999 Active 198 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $392,999 Active 197 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $392,999 Active 196 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $392,999 Active 195 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $392,999 Active 194 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $392,999 Active 192 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $392,999 Active 191 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $392,999 Active 190 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $392,999 Active 189 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $392,999 Active 188 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $392,999 Active 187 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $392,999 Active 186 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $392,999 Active 185 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $392,999 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,654
• − Property taxes: −$6,066
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$11,765
• Taxable loss: −$16,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Minor touch-ups and cleaning can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knights Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Marshall Middle Magnet School F FL #469/571 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Plant City High School F FL #312/667 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $390,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $388,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Listed $386,999 Zillow