116 N 38th St

Louisville, KY 40212

$174,000D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,622/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Atkinson Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 327 students, 88% FRL); Kammerer Middle (math 21% / reading 42%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $174k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,351/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1148% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.