116 N 38th St · Louisville, KY 40212

$174,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1949 6,922 sqft lot Est $145k · 20% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Discover this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home featuring fresh updates throughout and an unfinished basement offering endless potential for storage, workshop space, or future expansion. Step inside to updated modern finishes, spacious bedrooms, and a clean, bright interior ideal for today's living. This property is currently tenant-occupied with Section 8 at $1,500/month. Lease ends soon — giving buyers options and flexibility. Perfect investment opportunity to continue cash-flowing as a rental. .. OR take advantage of the timing and make this your own personal home! Conveniently located close to schools, shops, dining, and major road connections — this is a gre

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Flexible use
• 6,922 sq ft lot

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• FLEXIBLE USE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Built in 1949; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding construction
• Construction: Built in 1949; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Unfinished below-grade area
• Exterior features: Sidewalk on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor; Two bedrooms on the first floor; No basement bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bathroom located on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement; No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Atkinson Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 327 students, 88% FRL); Kammerer Middle (math 21% / reading 42%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,351/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1148% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $174k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,054 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 N 39th St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+2%)	4mo	$145,000	$117	76
210 N 35th St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,119 (-8%)	7mo	$100,000	$89	68
117 N 34th St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-7%)	4mo	$34,000	$30	66
369 N 41st St	0.35mi	4/1.5	1,100 (-9%)	2mo	$145,000	$132	65
212 N 37th St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-14%)	8mo	$121,000	$117	58
100 Boston Ct	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-11%)	9mo	$35,000	$32	56
405 N 41st St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-11%)	12mo	$168,000	$155	49
4149 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,327 (+10%)	3mo	$88,000	$66	46
3801 Miami Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	10mo	$134,900	$120	46
4611 W Market St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-6%)	11mo	$155,000	$137	44
610 S 35th St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	13mo	$155,000	$135	42
3508 Vermont Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (+12%)	14mo	$180,000	$133	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $82,873
• Equity at exit: $156,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $244,818
• Equity at exit: $338,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,939/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $150,117

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-86	+0% $-135	+5% $-184	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-189	+0% $-135	+5% $-82	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-91	base $-135	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	5d	1	0.15mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	5d	1	0.16mi
320 N 36th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	830	$1,225	$1.48	18d	1	0.22mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	22d	1	0.28mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	5d	1	0.33mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	21d	1	0.39mi
4129 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	3d	1	0.59mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	22d	1	0.61mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.61mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	13d	1	0.65mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	25d	1	0.66mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	18d	1	0.71mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	18d	1	0.74mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.84mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	1.05mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	1.06mi
715 S 41st St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	12d	1	1.07mi
522 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	5d	1	1.07mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	25d	1	1.07mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	25d	1	1.10mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	1.10mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	25d	1	1.12mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	25d	1	1.13mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	25d	1	1.14mi
714 S 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	18d	1	1.15mi
2906 Montgomery St Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,060	$0.92	25d	1	1.17mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	5d	1	1.17mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	5d	1	1.18mi
803 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1165	$1,449	$1.24	12d	1	1.19mi
2433 Slevin St Unit 2433-2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	5d	1	1.20mi
214 N 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1012	$915	$0.90	25d	1	1.23mi
833 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	786	$1,250	$1.59	25d	1	1.23mi
652 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,350	$1.20	19d	1	1.23mi
836 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	21d	1	1.24mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	25d	1	1.25mi
2506 Montgomery St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,295	$1.20	5d	4	1.34mi
3122 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	25d	1	1.44mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $174,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2025-12-09
    price $174,000
14. 2025-11-09
    listed $189,000 Active
15. 2025-02-15
    price $188,000
16. 2025-01-31
    price $205,000
17. 2025-01-06
    price $210,000
18. 2023-02-28
    soldstatus $50,000
19. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
20. 2023-01-26
    status Pending
21. 2022-12-04
    listed $59,950 Active
22. 1999-01-12
    soldstatus $38,700
23. 1998-10-07
    listed $39,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,939
• − Insurance: −$1,536
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$4,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $-501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+335.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $174,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $189,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $188,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $205,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-01-26 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-12-04 Listed $59,950 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-01-12 Sold (MLS) $38,700 Metro Search MLS
• 1998-10-07 Listed $39,950 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · +202.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.