1466 Manotak Point Dr #208

Jacksonville, FL 32210

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,157 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$207
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-620/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-620/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hyde Grove Elementary School (465 students, 84% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 49% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $159k implies a 408% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.