1466 Manotak Point Dr #208 · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,157 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 $207/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excitingly Economical Opportunity!Condo features open living & dining area,kitchen with breakfast bar,wood cabinetry,equipped laundry closet, 3 bedrooms,2 baths,balcony with view of the grounds.This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property. Purchase for as Little as 3% Down!Take Advantage, approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing!Perfect for a New Owner to Purchase, Renovate and Call it Home!Now is the time, Rates are Low and Possibilities are Soaring!

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Private balcony
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• EQUIPPED LAUNDRY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $207.90; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Condominium; 2 stories; Attached property; Residential use
• Exterior features: Balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-540/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hyde Grove Elementary School (465 students, 84% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 49% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $159k implies a 408% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,351 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-29,860
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-34,643
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,508/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$207
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $151,053

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $0	+0% $-45	+5% $-90	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-104	+0% $-45	+5% $14	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-5	base $-45	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1465 Manotak Point Dr #105 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,295	$1.38	19d	1	0.01mi
1570 Lane Ave S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	862	$1,425	$1.65	4d	10	0.11mi
1443 Winnebago Ave #1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	25d	1	0.16mi
1591 Lane Ave S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,485	$1.56	25d	1	0.39mi
1756 Lane Ave S Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,399	$1.12	9d	1	0.45mi
6161 Park St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,473	$1.22	18d	1	0.52mi
6128 Hollow Ct Key Hollow Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1492	$1,800	$1.21	25d	1	0.64mi
1406 Ellis Trace Dr W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1028	$1,200	$1.17	18d	1	0.65mi
6117 Hollow Ct Key Hollow Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,449	$1.39	9d	1	0.67mi
6037 Marsha Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,250	$0.96	16d	1	0.76mi
5671 Ellis Trace Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,595	$1.33	25d	1	0.78mi
5647 Ellis Trace Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	16d	1	0.80mi
6595 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	846	$1,250	$1.48	21d	4	0.82mi
6511 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	740	$1,200	$1.62	6d	1	0.85mi
5710 Lenox Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,299	$1.31	25d	1	0.87mi
7010 Arques Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,595	$1.12	13d	1	0.97mi
7010 Arques Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,595	$1.12	15d	1	0.97mi
909 La Marche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,600	$1.21	22d	1	0.97mi
1374 Lake Shore Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,150	$1.48	9d	2	1.01mi
1335 Mull St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1409	$1,725	$1.22	25d	1	1.07mi
1540 Lake Shore Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,495	$1.27	9d	1	1.08mi
5821 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,330	$1.26	5d	7	1.09mi
1303 Mull St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1409	$1,725	$1.22	25d	1	1.09mi
6781 Grace Ln Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	1296	$2,300	$1.77	25d	1	1.11mi
2111 Firestone Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	14d	1	1.14mi
2111 Firestone Rd Unit 3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	25d	1	1.14mi
5377 Royce Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	19d	1	1.14mi
7810 Spring Branch Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,960	$1.53	3d	1	1.16mi
5615 San Juan Ave #208 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	25d	1	1.17mi
5363 Poppy Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,445	$1.39	22d	1	1.18mi
5351 Royce Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	25d	1	1.19mi
2039 Niblick Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,275	$1.51	4d	10	1.21mi
6863 Jack Horner Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	9d	1	1.21mi
6746 Jack Horner Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	975	$1,450	$1.49	25d	1	1.23mi
7777 Normandy Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,999	$1.92	5d	19	1.25mi
7076 Queen of Hearts Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,500	$1.33	16d	1	1.25mi
7147 Eudine Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,585	$1.09	25d	1	1.26mi
5256 Clarendon Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,100	$1.64	25d	1	1.27mi
7178 Conant Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	996	$1,000	$1.00	19d	1	1.28mi
2234 Firestone Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1110	$2,000	$1.80	16d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $207 · $2,484/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 479-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,508
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − HOA: −$2,484
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+431.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $159,000 realMLS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (MLS) $31,300 realMLS
• 2012-11-20 Listed $29,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,508 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.