3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,605 sqft ·
Built 2022
· Townhouse
· Active
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,301/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$303
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$483
Net cashflow
$-54/mo
Annual
$-643/yr
Cap rate
6.08%
Cash-on-cash
-0.77%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-643/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (3.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (23.1% below list).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $230k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Holley-Navarre Primary (771 students, 41% FRL); Holley-Navarre Middle School (math 71% / reading 63%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 830 students, 42% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Navarre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-D8GE1V9S3KRDAF
· Data 12 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29