3708 Pepperwood Dr

Weldon, CA 93240

$99,500A-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $643/mo
• Annual: $7,720/yr
• Cap rate: 14.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.71%
• DSCR: 2.23
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $27,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.