2524 Tierra Oriente

Tierra Grande, TX 78415

$154,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,721 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 524 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,646/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,024/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 524 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,462 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Bishop CISD (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #486 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $155k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 524 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.