451 Rogers St

Orlando, FL 32811

$200,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 476 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $201/mo
• Annual: $2,415/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 476 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ivey Lane Elementary (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 311 students, 87% FRL); Jones High (math 9% / reading 25%, grade F, #597 of 667 statewide, top 90%, 1,672 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 56% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 238 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $200k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 476 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.