451 Rogers St · Orlando, FL 32811

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 476 Days on market

Built 1959 9,130 sqft lot Est $272k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD Case#094-517735. Property is HUD owned & subject to HUD rules. FHA eligibility- Uninsured (Cash/203k only). Sold As-Is, no post-contract repairs or credits whatsoever; Lien/Code violations may or may not exist; Mold issues may or may not exist. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, condition and HOA info if any. Buyer responsible for activating utilities for inspection. Investors must complete inspections prior to bid. Buyer to pay doc stamps, title ins and HOA transfer fees

Key facts

• Large driveway
• White cabinets
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association or HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential zoning
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.21-acre lot
• Exterior features: Patio; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Aluminum window frames
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ivey Lane Elementary (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 311 students, 87% FRL); Jones High (math 9% / reading 25%, grade F, #597 of 667 statewide, top 90%, 1,672 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 56% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 238 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 476 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $200k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 476 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,365
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4649 College Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,138 (-2%)	11mo	$285,000	$250	71
5133 Luna Negra Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-1%)	23mo	$340,000	$296	61
639 Cornelia Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,252 (+8%)	16mo	$281,000	$224	50
4544 Cypress St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+6%)	13mo	$280,000	$229	48
4660 Carter St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,033 (-11%)	16mo	$275,000	$266	44
1229 Lescot Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-5%)	9mo	$259,000	$235	42
4752 Amoy Ct	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,104 (-5%)	20mo	$196,000	$178	40
5022 Lanette St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-12%)	8mo	$270,000	$265	40
4535 America St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+10%)	22mo	$297,000	$233	37
327 Dover St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+9%)	22mo	$152,000	$121	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,185
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,098
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32811

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,145/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4995 Mercer St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,500	$1.80	2d	1	0.06mi
5036 College Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	0.18mi
4957 Vista Lago Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,228	$1.63	7d	1	0.34mi
4610 Barley St Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	805	$1,699	$2.11	23d	1	0.47mi
200 Fanfair Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	941	$1,730	$1.84	7d	1	0.50mi
769 Willie Mays Pkwy Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	4d	1	0.50mi
5425 Wood Crossing St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	4d	1	0.53mi
431 Gilman Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,626	$1.42	13d	1	0.62mi
4529 W Gore Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,549	$1.77	20d	1	0.62mi
4431 Barley St Orlando, FL	4.0	1.0	1026	$864	$0.84	23d	1	0.64mi
5235 Florida Holly Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,100	$1.90	23d	1	0.66mi
1025 Clovercrest Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,100	$2.00	17d	1	0.69mi
1025 Clovercrest Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,100	$2.00	23d	1	0.69mi
5132 Elese St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,800	$1.88	16d	1	0.75mi
701 S Ivey Ln Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	871	$1,329	$1.53	23d	1	0.77mi
4333 Cynthia St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1039	$1,813	$1.74	21d	1	0.80mi
1343 Croyle Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1273	$1,900	$1.49	23d	1	0.83mi
907 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1131	$1,660	$1.47	3d	14	0.90mi
464 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,375	$2.43	2d	19	0.92mi
686 Walkup Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,050	$1.46	23d	1	0.97mi
5300 Lescot Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,900	$1.66	23d	1	0.99mi
4655 Cepeda St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1266	$1,695	$1.34	23d	1	1.00mi
1401 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,116	$2.17	1d	32	1.14mi
5971 Westgate Dr #1213 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,580	$1.47	20d	1	1.15mi
5915 Raleigh St Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$3,204	$3.08	1d	28	1.16mi
4487 Wheatley St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1249	$1,950	$1.56	20d	1	1.18mi
5979 Westgate Dr #1021 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,800	$1.38	14d	1	1.20mi
137 N Nowell St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1167	$2,300	$1.97	17d	1	1.21mi
6022 Westgate Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	894	$1,488	$1.66	23d	2	1.25mi
6025 Westgate Dr #2512 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,595	$1.48	2d	1	1.25mi
6025 Westgate Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,595	$1.78	2d	2	1.25mi
6025 Westgate Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,595	$1.78	2d	3	1.25mi
4118 Minoso St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1213	$1,860	$1.53	23d	1	1.26mi
6022 Westgate Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.5	894	$1,525	$1.71	17d	1	1.26mi
6029 Westgate Dr #712 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,599	$1.48	23d	1	1.26mi
1920 Willie Mays Pkwy Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1446	$2,070	$1.43	20d	1	1.27mi
4201 Cepeda St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	1.28mi
1601 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,980	$2.26	2d	23	1.29mi
6016 Westgate Dr #204 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$1,700	$1.72	14d	1	1.30mi
5009 Deauville Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1224	$2,000	$1.63	23d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 476 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 475 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 474 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 473 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 471 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 470 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 467 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 466 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 465 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 462 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 461 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 460 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 459 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 458 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active
16. 2026-05-07
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-03
    status Active
18. 2026-03-27
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-19
    price $200,000
20. 2025-06-26
    price $220,000
21. 2025-04-07
    price $230,000
22. 2025-02-13
    listed $240,000 Active
23. 2019-07-24
    soldstatus $122,000
24. 2012-03-22
    soldstatus $23,000
25. 2012-03-20
    soldstatus $22,999 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD Case#094-517735. Property is HUD owned & subject to HUD rules. FHA eligibility- Uninsured (Cash/203k only). Sold As-Is, no post-contract repairs or credits whatsoever; Lien/Code violations may or may not exist; Mold issues may or may not exist. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, condition and HOA info if any. Buyer responsible for activating utilities for inspection. Investors must complete inspections prior to bid. Buyer to pay doc stamps, title ins and HOA transfer fees

26. 2012-02-19
    listed $21,000 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD Case#094-517735. Property is HUD owned & subject to HUD rules. FHA eligibility- Uninsured (Cash/203k only). Sold As-Is, no post-contract repairs or credits whatsoever; Lien/Code violations may or may not exist; Mold issues may or may not exist. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, condition and HOA info if any. Buyer responsible for activating utilities for inspection. Investors must complete inspections prior to bid. Buyer to pay doc stamps, title ins and HOA transfer fees

27. 2006-06-23
    soldstatus $152,000
28. 2006-05-26
    soldstatus $152,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    * * * JUST REDUCED FOR QUICK SALE * * * This beautiful renovated home including new paint, carpet, light fixtures and lots more. Close to shopping area. Refridgerator & Range will be provided

29. 2006-03-04
    listed $149,900 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    * * * JUST REDUCED FOR QUICK SALE * * * This beautiful renovated home including new paint, carpet, light fixtures and lots more. Close to shopping area. Refridgerator & Range will be provided

30. 2005-12-01
    soldstatus $126,000
31. 2005-09-27
    listed $129,000
32. 2005-08-05
    soldstatus $80,500
33. 2005-07-29
    soldstatus $80,500
34. 2005-06-10
    listed $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,145
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,475
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 69.9% rent · 30.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2728.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 17% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Estonian 4% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.37%
• Current HPI: 284.9191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+153.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-20 Sold (MLS) $22,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-19 Listed $21,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-26 Sold (MLS) $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-04 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-01 Sold (MLS) $126,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-27 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records
• 2005-07-29 Sold (MLS) $80,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-10 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,145 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.