19730 Shepard Lake Rd E

Mount Vernon, AL 36560

$32,999B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax + insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $483/mo
• Annual: $5,792/yr
• Cap rate: 23.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.69%
• DSCR: 3.79
• 1% rule: 2.61%
• Cash to close: $9,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $33k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($860 rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.