19730 Shepard Lake Rd E · Mount Vernon, AL 36560

$32,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1984 4,356 sqft lot $39/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 142 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($860 rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $29,039 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.69%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $32,999
• Delta: -63.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $40,398
• Equity at exit: $20,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.25×
• Total profit: $94,710
• Equity at exit: $38,005

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36560

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $119/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $249

Max offer price $32,999

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $492	+0% $483	+5% $473	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $415	-5% $449	+0% $483	+5% $517	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $491	base $483	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,999 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,999 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,999 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,999 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,999 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,999 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $32,999 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,999 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,999 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,999 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,999 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,999 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $32,999 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,999 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,999 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,999 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $34,999 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $34,999 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

19. 2026-04-06
    price $38,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

20. 2026-03-31
    price $39,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

21. 2026-03-28
    price $39,999 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

22. 2026-03-09
    price $46,999 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

23. 2026-02-24
    price $49,999 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

24. 2026-02-19
    price $56,999 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

25. 2026-02-03
    price $58,999 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

26. 2026-01-27
    listed $59,999 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Affordable home with tons of potential in Mt. Vernon! This 2 bed, 2 bath property needs repairs but gives a great chance to customize or flip. Priced to sell, with a highly motivated seller, ready to make a deal!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $119 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $135 · $11/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,848
• − Property taxes: −$119
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$826
• − Management: −$826
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $5,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $4,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #10680

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,000

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Current HPI: 136.3161
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-41.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $34,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $38,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $39,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $39,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $46,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $49,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $56,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $58,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $59,999 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $119 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.