22488 E Carters Landing Rd

Keys, OK 74451

$125,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $293/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($293/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (21.9% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $98k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#350 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Keys (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #19 of 270 in OK (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keys Es (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 845 statewide, top 9%, 493 students, 0% FRL); Keys Hs (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #296 of 447 statewide, top 67%, 257 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cherokee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.