22488 E Carters Landing Rd · Keys, OK 74451

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 1.75 ac lot Est $191k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath lake home just ONE minute from Lake Tenkiller access! Enjoy boating, fishing, swimming, and picnicking practically at your doorstep. This inviting property offers a peaceful 1.75 acre park-like setting with mature trees and a beautiful winter lake view. Relax and unwind on the spacious wrap-around porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. The home features a comfortable, move-in ready interior that has been lovingly cared for over the years. Outside, you’ll find a 2-bay carport, a small workshop, and multiple outbuildings providing plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or lake gear. Whether you’re looking for a full

Key facts

• Small workshop
• Park-like setting
• Wrap-around porch

Tags

• LAKE HOME
• LAKE ACCESS
• PARK-LIKE SETTING
• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• 2-BAY CARPORT
• SMALL WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Marina access

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Detached parking; Carport
• Security: Storm shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic system; Rural water
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Wood frame construction
• Construction: Built (year per public records); Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Dirt and gravel driveways; Dog run; Partial fencing; Storage structure; Workshop; Storm shelter; Mature trees; Boat ramp/lift access to Tenkiller Lake; Less than 1 mile to water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Stove; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Gas range and gas oven connections; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($293/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#350 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Keys (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #19 of 270 in OK (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Cherokee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,567 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,160
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26059 S 557 Rd	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-7%)	11mo	$178,400	$177	72
22588 E Carters Landing Rd	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	940 (-13%)	10mo	$78,000	$83	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $34,977
• Equity at exit: $75,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $102,296
• Equity at exit: $135,125

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74451

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $60	+0% $24	+5% $-11	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-14	+0% $24	+5% $63	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $56	base $24	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 141.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$454
• After-tax cash flow: $748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keys
• NCES district ID: 4000033
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,426
• Composite: 33.74/100
• National rank: #5370
• State rank: #19 of 270 in OK

Livability — Keys

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #18991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,816

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,747 people
• By 2030: 53,481 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 56,503 · +9.2%
• By 2050: 59,370 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 67,178 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 70,900 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Native American 27% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.6) · D 32.7% · R 65.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.6 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 256.0707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-05-06 Listed $125,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.