443 Fairy Lake Rd

Witherbee, NY 12960

$129,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · Built 1887 · SingleFamily · Active · 268 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $88/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,152 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.