443 Fairy Lake Rd · Witherbee, NY 12960

$129,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1887 9.70 ac lot $119/sqft · 25% below area Est $172k · 25% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older fixer upper farm house home with 1 bedroom down staits, 2 bedrooms upstairs , 1 bath, country kitchen, pantry /storage area, large livingroom situated on 11.3 acres. Heat is a wood furnace located in basement and a monitor heater. Property consists of 2 parcels 106.2-1-10.200 (1.6 ac)& 106.2-1-9.000 (9.7 ac)

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Pantry storage area
• Wood furnace

Tags

• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• PANTRY STORAGE AREA
• LARGE LIVINGROOM
• 11.3 ACRES
• WOOD FURNACE
• MONITOR HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,152 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,635
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -24.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $40,310
• Equity at exit: $83,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $117,655
• Equity at exit: $154,408

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12960

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,348/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $44	+0% $7	+5% $-29	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-39	+0% $7	+5% $54	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $40	base $7	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $129,000 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Older fixer upper farm house home with 1 bedroom down staits, 2 bedrooms upstairs , 1 bath, country kitchen, pantry /storage area, large livingroom situated on 11.3 acres. Heat is a wood furnace located in basement and a monitor heater. Property consists of 2 parcels 106.2-1-10.200 (1.6 ac)& 106.2-1-9.000 (9.7 ac)

16. 2026-03-04
    status Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Older fixer upper farm house home with 1 bedroom down staits, 2 bedrooms upstairs , 1 bath, country kitchen, pantry /storage area, large livingroom situated on 11.3 acres. Heat is a wood furnace located in basement and a monitor heater. Property consists of 2 parcels 106.2-1-10.200 (1.6 ac)& 106.2-1-9.000 (9.7 ac)

17. 2025-10-04
    historical Contingent 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Older fixer upper farm house home with 1 bedroom down staits, 2 bedrooms upstairs , 1 bath, country kitchen, pantry /storage area, large livingroom situated on 11.3 acres. Heat is a wood furnace located in basement and a monitor heater. Property consists of 2 parcels 106.2-1-10.200 (1.6 ac)& 106.2-1-9.000 (9.7 ac)

18. 2025-09-22
    listed $139,000 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Older fixer upper farm house home with 1 bedroom down staits, 2 bedrooms upstairs , 1 bath, country kitchen, pantry /storage area, large livingroom situated on 11.3 acres. Heat is a wood furnace located in basement and a monitor heater. Property consists of 2 parcels 106.2-1-10.200 (1.6 ac)& 106.2-1-9.000 (9.7 ac)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,348 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,348 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,348
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$495
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moriah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,940
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3937
• State rank: #445 of 590 in NY

Livability — Witherbee

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1152
• US rank: #24055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment B+ Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 995

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% Slovak 12% Romanian 8%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 340.4974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $129,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-10-04 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $139,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,348 · -17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.