4759 Lobelia Rd

Vass, NC 28394

$240,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $807/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($807/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#593 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vass-Lakeview Elementary (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #328 of 1,410 statewide, top 24%, 460 students, 42% FRL); Crain'S Creek Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #199 of 475 statewide, top 43%, 592 students, 51% FRL); Union Pines High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #150 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,438 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Vass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.