102 Forest Dr Unit 309 / I Clay Brook at Sugarbush

Waitsfield, VT 05674

$159,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$618
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-239/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-239/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (1.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $156k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.