102 Forest Dr Unit 309 / I Clay Brook at Sugarbush · Waitsfield, VT 05674

$159,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · Condo · 3 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $618/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a rare opportunity to own one of the most coveted one bedrooms in ClayBrook! Perched on the top residential level with no units above, this unique and spacious dog-friendly one-bedroom quarter-share property captures sweeping views of the year-round heated pool and the slopes of Sugarbush Resort’s Lincoln Peak. Fully furnished and impeccably appointed, this mountain retreat blends sophisticated alpine elegance with effortless resort living. Granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom finishes, warm wood flooring, and a cozy gas fireplace create an inviting yet refined atmosphere. Designed for comfort and entertaining, the open living, dining, and kitchen area featu

Key facts

• Underground parking
• Valet service
• Ev charging

Tags

• SWEEPING VIEWS
• YEAR ROUND HEATED POOL
• VALET SERVICE
• UNDERGROUND PARKING
• EV CHARGING
• SKI AND BOOT VALET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a resort community; Association documents and deed available
• Financial info: Timeshare/fractional ownership in place (25% ownership)
• HOA & community: Condo fees (quarterly); Fee covers cable, cooling, electric, heat, hot water, landscaping, internet, plowing, sewer, water, building maintenance and HOA fee; Association amenities include building maintenance, exercise facility, master insurance, indoor storage, landscaping, elevator, hot tub, in-ground heated pool, and locker rooms

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; Fiber optic internet; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium unit (Clay Brook at Sugarbush), Unit 309 / I; Other architectural style; Existing construction; Shingle (asphalt) roof; Built in 2006
• Construction: Steel frame with clapboard exterior; Concrete basement
• Exterior features: Landscaped grounds; Mountain views; Ski area and ski trailside access; Views; Walking trails; Adjoins state/national forest; Near public transportation; Common/shared paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (electric); Range (electric); Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Slate/stone; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane hot air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Interior-access basement with finished, climate-controlled space, concrete floor, insulated and full height, interior stairs; Assigned, locked storage space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-239/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (1.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $156,124 (1.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $85,742
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $254,311
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05674

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$618
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $156,124

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $618 · $7,416/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-23
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − HOA: −$7,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$594
• After-tax cash flow: $356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This one-bedroom townhouse is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, and good exterior. The home is move-in ready and has a good rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Replace flooring — Worn hardwood floors can be replaced with more durable materials

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Worn hardwood floors can be replaced with more durable materials ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Waitsfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #9382

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,678

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.62%
• Current HPI: 361.2902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $159,000 PrimeMLS