1018 Ervin Ter

Dayton, KY 41074

$9,500D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,069 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$50
• Tax + insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,544/mo
• Annual: $18,534/yr
• Cap rate: 201.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 696.75%
• DSCR: 32.00
• 1% rule: 21.45%
• Cash to close: $2,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $10k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $9k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $66 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $285 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#67 in KY, #1,485 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Dayton Independent (suburban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #129 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 487 students, 82% FRL); Dayton High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 372 students, 78% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 201.4% vs local median 6.9% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.