1018 Ervin Ter · Dayton, KY 41074

$9,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,069 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1905 3,659 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-family home in the heart of revitalized Dayton, Kentucky! This 1,069 sq ft, 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence offers classic NKY character on a generous 3,659 sq ft lot in the established A. A. E. Taylors subdivision. Located just minutes from the Ohio River, scenic parks, local dining, and downtown Cincinnati, this home places you in one of Northern Kentucky's most exciting up-and-coming communities. Enjoy easy commuting, riverfront events, and the vibrant small-town atmosphere Dayton is known for. Due to condition, property may not be entered. Sold sight unseen, as is where is. The Seller will not review or negotiate offers until the property has been listed for 10 days. Seller reserves

Key facts

• Easy commuting
• Generous lot
• Downtown cincinnati

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• MINUTES FROM OHIO RIVER
• SCENIC PARKS
• LOCAL DINING
• DOWNTOWN CINCINNATI
• EASY COMMUTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built in 1905; Aluminum siding; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot dimensions 29 x 126; Lot size approximately 0.08 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 10); Bedroom 2 (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Fireplace; Full basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $9,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$212,731) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $9k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 201.4% vs local median 6.9% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#67 in KY, #1,485 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Dayton Independent (suburban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #129 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 487 students, 82% FRL); Dayton High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 372 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $66 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $285 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $8,930 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 21.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 201.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 696.75%
• DSCR: 32.00
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,731
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
911 Thornton St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,075 (+1%)	1mo	$216,000	$201	83
431 8th Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,072 (+0%)	4mo	$206,500	$193	77
219 8th Ave	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,128 (+6%)	3mo	$225,000	$199	68
326 Covert Run Pike	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,078 (+1%)	1mo	$258,000	$239	67
325 Washington Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	985 (-8%)	3mo	$150,000	$152	60
223 4th Ave	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,152 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$239	60
526 5th Ave	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	964 (-10%)	2mo	$105,000	$109	60
1121 7th Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,183 (+11%)	1mo	$262,000	$221	58
607 Main St	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (+14%)	1mo	$239,000	$197	52
356 Foote Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,219 (+14%)	2mo	$185,000	$152	47
340 Lafayette Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+12%)	4mo	$250,000	$208	42
223 Poplar St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,229 (+15%)	2mo	$170,000	$138	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.75×
• Total profit: $105,724
• Equity at exit: $1,416

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 98.18×
• Total profit: $258,486
• Equity at exit: $821

Cash invested: $2,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41074

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$50
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $142/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $83

Max offer price $9,500

Occupancy floor 19%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,375
• Closing costs: $285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
236 Ward Ave Bellevue, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,585	$1.72	12d	1	0.49mi
324 Fairfield Ave Unit 4 Bellevue, KY	2.0	1.0	1095	$1,545	$1.41	21d	1	0.62mi
324 Fairfield Ave Unit 1 Bellevue, KY	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,685	$1.56	3d	1	0.62mi
239 Grandview Ave Bellevue, KY	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,645	$1.50	4d	2	0.72mi
1065 Manhattan Blvd Dayton, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,749	$2.65	2d	19	0.73mi
1181 Manhattan Blvd Dayton, KY	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,712	$2.41	2d	10	0.82mi
2015 Edgecliff Pt Unit 4 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	4d	1	1.00mi
2401 Salutaris Ave Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.10mi
1243 Martin Dr Unit 1056135P Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	1184	$3,099	$2.62	2d	1	1.12mi
2118 Saint James Ave Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,650	$1.64	24d	1	1.19mi
1404-1406 E McMillan St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	1.20mi
2330 Victory Pkwy Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	693	$1,999	$2.88	2d	6	1.21mi
1713 William Howard Taft Rd #1 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	24d	1	1.23mi
2533 Woodburn Ave Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–3.0	912	$3,320	$3.64	2d	39	1.27mi
1137 Fuller St Unit 1056121P Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	1135	$3,653	$3.22	2d	2	1.30mi
1228 E McMillan St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1340	$2,327	$1.74	2d	14	1.31mi
960 Francisco St Unit 107 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	912	$1,649	$1.81	24d	1	1.32mi
2705 Hackberry St Unit 1 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	24d	1	1.36mi
2705 Hackberry St Unit 1 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	3d	1	1.36mi
2716 Woodburn Ave Unit 2 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.36mi
2132 Gilbert Ave Unit A Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.5	1450	$2,250	$1.55	4d	1	1.43mi
975 E McMillan St Unit 201 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	978	$1,695	$1.73	20d	1	1.44mi
975 E McMillan St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	978	$1,695	$1.73	20d	1	1.44mi
2624 Victory Pkwy Unit 206 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	975	$1,499	$1.54	10d	1	1.45mi
1055 St Paul Pl Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,995	$3.07	2d	10	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $9,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $9,500 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $9,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $9,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $9,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $9,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $9,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $9,500 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $9,500 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $9,500 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $9,500 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-03-31
    listed $19,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$532
• − Property taxes: −$142
• − Insurance: −$48
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$276
• Taxable income: $19,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,691
• After-tax cash flow: $13,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101530
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,533
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7978
• State rank: #129 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #1485

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, KY
• County: Campbell County · 84,793 people
• City population: 5,756
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 5,756
• Household income: $66,087
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 215.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,668 people
• By 2030: 96,886 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 97,734 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 96,413 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 90,211 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 79,434 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.2% · R 58.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.2pp toward D · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.48%
• Current HPI: 235.1437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.15%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $19,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+18.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,430 · +67.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.