20389 N 259th Ave

Buckeye, AZ 85396

$369,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,016/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (27.3% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $268k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 950 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.