20389 N 259th Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$369,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2015 6,969 sqft lot $209/sqft · 7% below area Est $395k · 7% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained, upgraded and truly move-in ready, this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable community of Festival Foothills offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and energy efficiency. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the inviting curb appeal featuring stacked-stone accents and easy-care desert landscaping designed for effortless Arizona living. Best of all, the fully owned solar system delivers exceptional savings with average electric bills of only $21/month for full-time living - allowing you to enjoy comfort year-round without the high utility costs. Step inside to a light-filled open-concept floor plan designed for both everyday living and enterta

Key facts

• Desert landscaping
• Granite countertops
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY OWNED SOLAR SYSTEM
• DESERT LANDSCAPING
• SURROUND SOUND SYSTEM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $125 covering grounds maintenance; Association rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs and boats; Community amenities include a pool, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: Approximately 2 open parking spaces; Approximately 2.5 covered/garage spaces; Garage with direct access and garage door opener; Side vehicle entry
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Built with wood frame and stucco, accented with stone; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Stucco, wood frame and stone exterior with painted finish; Block fencing; Tile roof; East/West exposure; Front and rear desert landscaping with automatic timers for irrigation; Sprinklers in front and rear; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite countertops; Double vanity in bathroom; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Low-emissivity windows with tinted glass and vinyl frames; Solar panels; Tankless hot water heater; Zero-grade (no-step) entry
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,438 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,275
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20389 N 259th Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,766 (0%)	0mo	$360,000	$204	96
26058 W Yukon Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+1%)	3mo	$318,000	$179	79
19885 N 259th Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,796 (+2%)	3mo	$355,000	$198	75
21139 N 259th Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+1%)	2mo	$372,400	$209	71
26109 W Runion Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-8%)	3mo	$300,000	$185	69
26082 W Piute Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+1%)	2mo	$329,000	$185	66
26478 W Sierra Pinta Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+3%)	2mo	$395,000	$217	51
25940 W Oraibi Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,995 (+13%)	2mo	$383,000	$192	50
26485 W Pontiac Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-9%)	1mo	$445,000	$276	42
21361 N 262nd Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-9%)	3mo	$380,000	$236	42
26494 W Sierra Pinta Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-9%)	2mo	$370,000	$230	40
20493 N 264th Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+11%)	2mo	$497,000	$253	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-74,757
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-81,388
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,003

Max offer price $324,604

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-42	-5% $-147	+0% $-251	+5% $-356	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-357	+0% $-251	+5% $-145	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-157	base $-251	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26043 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.5	2025	$1,900	$0.94	3d	1	0.22mi
25925 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.0	2131	$1,999	$0.94	6d	1	0.46mi
25925 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.0	2131	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	0.46mi
26028 W Matthew Dr Unit NA Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,750	$1.38	44d	1	0.47mi
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	3d	1	0.49mi
26087 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,300	$1.42	44d	1	0.49mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	2d	1	0.60mi
20493 N 264th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,200	$2.14	2d	1	0.65mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	44d	1	0.73mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	25d	1	0.83mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,900	$2.11	2d	1	0.87mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,850	$2.07	10d	1	0.87mi
26195 W Via del Sol Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,300	$2.21	2d	1	0.92mi
26208 W Tina Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$1,999	$1.24	13d	1	1.00mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	3d	1	1.01mi
26473 W Sack Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	2310	$2,500	$1.08	2d	1	1.04mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	5d	1	1.06mi
26653 W Firehawk Dr Unit 1302342P Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1883	$2,459	$1.31	2d	1	1.14mi
26824 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2092	$3,500	$1.67	44d	1	1.14mi
20540 N 268th Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1961	$2,200	$1.12	13d	1	1.18mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	19d	1	1.22mi
26990 W Burnett Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,000	$2.04	44d	1	1.33mi
20002 N 269th Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$3,500	$1.78	2d	1	1.36mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	44d	1	1.37mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	2d	1	1.37mi
26704 W McRae Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2014	$4,000	$1.99	2d	1	1.42mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	2d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscaping

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $369,000 Active 2463-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$9,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,301
• After-tax cash flow: $-715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $360,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $369,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,898 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.