9765 S Glen Ave

Glen St. Mary, FL 32040

$264,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,079/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (16.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $220k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Baker County Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 1,102 students, 52% FRL); Baker County Senior High School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,425 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Glen St. Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.