9765 S Glen Ave · Glen St. Mary, FL 32040

$264,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 9,583 sqft lot Est $237k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning brand-new construction home featuring a welcoming front porch and an inviting open floor plan that blends comfort and style. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport, offering protected parking for your vehicles and easy access to the home, rain or shine The beautifully designed kitchen includes granite countertops, a stunning tile backsplash, and soft-close cabinets, offering both elegance and everyday convenience. Open family room for entertaining. The spacious master bedroom provides a relaxing retreat, complemented by a master bath with double vanities for added comfort. This unique home is perfect for a first-time homebuyer or anyone looking to downsize witho

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Soft-close cabinets
• Covered carport

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED CARPORT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard with privacy fencing; County road frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Glen St. Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Baker County Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 1,102 students, 52% FRL); Baker County Senior High School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,425 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,346 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,544
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9750 Sherman Ave S	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,018 (-1%)	3mo	$235,000	$231	91
9762 Sherman Ave S	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,018 (-1%)	4mo	$235,000	$231	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-48,620
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-49,577
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32040

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,974/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $251,887

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $2	+0% $-90	+5% $-181	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-177	+0% $-90	+5% $-3	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-23	base $-90	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $264,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $264,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$3,974
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$5,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,352
• After-tax cash flow: $272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baker
• NCES district ID: 1200060
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,301
• Composite: 43.67/100
• National rank: #2958
• State rank: #28 of 73 in FL

Livability — Glen St. Mary

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glen St. Mary, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,754

Population outlook (Baker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,607 people
• By 2030: 27,452 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 26,637 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 25,103 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 19,576 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 11,664 · -57.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.2% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -57.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+58.6 2008: R+57.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.72%
• Current HPI: 216.151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $264,900 realMLS

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $377 · -74.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.