2031 Oak Trail Dr

Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$129,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $786/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $-230/mo
• Annual: $-2,766/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.60%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (39.5% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $180 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: May El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 120 students, 72% FRL); May H S (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #876 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 134 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 46% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.