2031 Oak Trail Dr · Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1986 0.52 ac lot Est $91k · 42% over $38/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

Key facts

• Circle drive way
• Lake access
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• CIRCLE DRIVE WAY
• LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE TREE COVERED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Brown County, United States; Directions: GPS
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Tamarack Association); HOA fee $450 annually; HOA management phone: [phone]

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport; Additional parking; Circular driveway; Asphalt and concrete surfaces
• Security: HOA-provided security
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Co-op Electric); Rural water district; Septic; Asphalt (road surface)
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Attached; Built in 1986; Subdivision: Tamarack Mountain Sec I
• Construction: Year built 1986
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Accessible approach with ramp; Water access to Brownwood

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Flat screen wiring; One living area; One dining area; One level (single story)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-540/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: May El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 120 students, 72% FRL); May H S (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #876 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 134 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 46% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $180 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,064 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,168
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2281 Live Oak Dr	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-2%)	2mo	$55,000	$47	66
3310 Surfside Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+5%)	4mo	$95,500	$77	52
3020 Harbor Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-10%)	11mo	$21,999	$21	46
3250 Surfside Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+15%)	12mo	$149,000	$110	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,832
• Equity at exit: $38,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,181
• Equity at exit: $47,152

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76857

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $936/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $121,945

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-8	+0% $-45	+5% $-82	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-85	+0% $-45	+5% $-5	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-12	base $-45	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-25
    listed $129,900 Active
19. 2024-10-11
    soldstatus Closed 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

20. 2024-10-10
    soldstatus
21. 2024-10-07
    status Pending 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

22. 2024-09-25
    historical Active Option Contract 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

23. 2024-09-09
    price $87,000 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

24. 2024-08-13
    price $99,000 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

25. 2024-07-30
    listed $108,000 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Come see this beautifully re-done home! With completely re-done flooring it looks amazing inside! It boasts a wood-burning fireplace, decorative lighting and some fresh paint! This home is located in Tamarack Mountain, and the HOA includes swimming pool and fishing dock! There is a 3 car carport on the property as well as a shed for storage or work table! Large yard for all of your outdoor desires. This home comes with several appliances as well. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to make this slice of Texas and Brownwood Lake your own!! Seller is offering a concession for up to $2500 with full price offer!

26. 2023-12-15
    soldstatus Closed 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

27. 2023-12-15
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

28. 2023-11-27
    status Pending 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

29. 2023-11-18
    historical Active Option Contract 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

30. 2023-10-12
    price $67,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

31. 2023-10-06
    price $89,999 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

32. 2023-07-13
    price $95,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

33. 2023-06-27
    price $100,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

34. 2023-06-07
    listed $110,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH 3 CAR CARPORT WITH WORKSHOP SITUATED ON 3 LOTS. Is being sold AS IS but with a little TLC will make a great new home or investment property. Just a short distance from Lake Brownwood located in Tamarack Mountain with access to Community Pool and Boat Dock.

35. 2018-05-29
    soldstatus
36. 2007-03-08
    soldstatus
37. 1995-01-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $936 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,441/yr (+$120/mo · 154.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$936
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$674
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: May ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829520
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,809
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9397
• State rank: #729 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Thunderbird Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1233
• US rank: #21564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thunderbird Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,381 people
• By 2030: 38,288 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 38,120 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 38,227 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 39,362 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 39,171 · +2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.7% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -61.5pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+74.5 2012: R+71.7 2008: R+61.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 101.8877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2024-10-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-09-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $87,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $108,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-11-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-11-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-10-12 Price Changed $67,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-06 Price Changed $89,999 NTREIS
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-27 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-07 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2018-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $936 · +26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.