15A Brushy Neck Ln

Westhampton, NY 11977

$2,825,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,118 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,815
• Tax + insurance: −$2,499
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,615
• Net cashflow: $46/mo
• Annual: $555/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $791,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.83M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($555/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.20M (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $269k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $249k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#969 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Westhampton Beach Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #81 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $2.83M implies a 1156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $791k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$431k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 9.1% in Westhampton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $21,975/mo this rent would consume 174% of the median local household income ($151k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.