15A Brushy Neck Ln · Westhampton, NY 11977

$2,825,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2002 2.02 ac lot $686/sqft · at area comps Est $2770k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the ultimate in Hamptons waterfront living in this expansive Westhampton retreat. Tucked away on a private 2 acre flag lot on the Speonk River, this exceptional property offers a rare sense of seclusion while just moments from the Village of Westhampton Beach and local ocean beaches. Designed to capture a breathtaking western exposure, the home is perfectly positioned for unforgettable sunsets. Generous living spaces are filled with natural light, seamlessly blending indoor comfort with the beauty of the surrounding landscape. Ideal for both relaxed living and entertaining, the residence features spacious bedrooms, multiple gathering areas, and a screened-in porch overlooking your own fishpond. Constructed in 2002, a conversion of the original garage was made to living space along with the addition of a 2 car garage in 2005; Bringing the square footage of the residence to 4100+ square feet. Additional spaces include a main floor bedroom/bathroom, den/tv room, 2 living rooms, and screened-in porch. There is room for a pool on the "water side" creating a rare opportunity to own a private waterfront sanctuary in one of the Hamptons’ most sought-after locations.

Key facts

• Private flag lot
• Screened in porch
• Fishpond

Tags

• PRIVATE FLAG LOT
• SPEONK RIVER
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• FISHPOND
• CONVERSION OF ORIGINAL GARAGE
• ADDITION OF 2 CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.83M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($555/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.20M (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 9.1% in Westhampton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#969 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Westhampton Beach Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #81 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $21,975/mo this rent would consume 174% of the median local household income ($151k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $269k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $249k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $791k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$431k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $2.83M implies a 1156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,197,463 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,769,803
• List price: $2,825,000
• Delta: 1.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27c Brushy Neck Ln	0.25mi	4/4.0	4,000 (-3%)	19mo	$2,700,000	$675	64
11 Pine Grove Ct	0.36mi	4/4.5	4,000 (-3%)	13mo	$2,025,000	$506	61
11A Brushy Neck Ln	0.07mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,643 (-12%)	15mo	$3,101,000	$851	52
11 Brushy Neck Ln	0.08mi	4/4.5	3,614 (-12%)	24mo	$1,700,000	$470	50
44 Bridle Path	0.46mi	4/6.5	4,220 (+2%)	24mo	$1,750,000	$415	40
34 Jagger Ln	0.33mi	5/7.5 (+1)	4,600 (+12%)	13mo	$3,930,000	$854	34
108 S Country Rd	0.70mi	4/5.5	4,667 (+13%)	10mo	$2,750,000	$589	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $1,316,625
• Equity at exit: $2,306,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $3,829,929
• Equity at exit: $4,741,326

Cash invested: $791,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11977

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,815
• Tax from tax record: −$1,322 /mo · $15,864/yr
• Insurance: −$1,177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,615
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,916

Max offer price $2,825,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $706,250
• Closing costs: $84,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Pine Grove Ct Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3500	$35,000	$10.00	22d	1	0.26mi
8 Sweetgrass Rd Westhampton, NY	5.0	4.5	4050	$13,000	$3.21	1d	1	0.57mi
13 Buttercup Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	4.5	3278	$25,000	$7.63	5d	1	0.57mi
9 Plume Grass Way Westhampton, NY	4.0	5.5	4405	$40,000	$9.08	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,825,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,825,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,825,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,825,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,825,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $2,975,000 Active 1204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1204 chars)

    Experience the ultimate in Hamptons waterfront living in this expansive Westhampton retreat. Tucked away on a private 2 acre flag lot on the Speonk River, this exceptional property offers a rare sense of seclusion while just moments from the Village of Westhampton Beach and local ocean beaches. Designed to capture a breathtaking western exposure, the home is perfectly positioned for unforgettable sunsets. Generous living spaces are filled with natural light, seamlessly blending indoor comfort with the beauty of the surrounding landscape. Ideal for both relaxed living and entertaining, the residence features spacious bedrooms, multiple gathering areas, and a screened-in porch overlooking your own fishpond. Constructed in 2002, a conversion of the original garage was made to living space along with the addition of a 2 car garage in 2005; Bringing the square footage of the residence to 4100+ square feet. Additional spaces include a main floor bedroom/bathroom, den/tv room, 2 living rooms, and screened-in porch. There is room for a pool on the "water side" creating a rare opportunity to own a private waterfront sanctuary in one of the Hamptons’ most sought-after locations.

15. 1999-09-29
    soldstatus $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,864 · $1,322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $31,803 · $2,650/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,939/yr (+$1,328/mo · 100.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $263,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$158,244
• − Property taxes: −$15,864
• − Insurance: −$14,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,096
• − Management: −$21,096
• − Depreciation: −$82,182
• Taxable loss: −$48,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,738
• After-tax cash flow: $12,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westhampton Beach Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3631020
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $88,137
• Composite: 65.91/100
• National rank: #444
• State rank: #81 of 590 in NY

Livability — Westhampton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #18972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westhampton, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,843
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,843
• Household income: $151,375
• Rent vs Own: 6.0% rent · 94.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.82%
• Current HPI: 391.8868
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1222.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $2,975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $15,864 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.