Fleetwood U86 Holiday Village Plan

Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37207

$145,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,632/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,228
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-329/mo
• Annual: $-3,952/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $65,576

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tom Joy Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Jere Baxter Middle (math 2% / reading 3%, grade F, #329 of 333 statewide, top 99%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Maplewood High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 691 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 794 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.