Fleetwood U86 Holiday Village Plan · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37207

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Manufactured · 127 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.5

Listing remarks

Holiday Village in Nashville, Tennessee is a peaceful, yet vibrant community, ideal for people dreaming of owning a home in a thriving area of Tennessee. Our 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes feature spacious open-concept floor plans, Energy-Star Certified appliances, and wood kitchen cabinets. Holiday Village, owned and operated by UMH Properties, is a gated community offering a wide variety of amenities, including bus shelters, and playgrounds. Additionally, this Nashville community offers exciting events such as resident appreciation nights, raffles, and seed and fertilizer handouts to jumpstart your landscaping.

Key facts

• Listed 126 days

Tags

• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $145,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $234,199.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tom Joy Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Jere Baxter Middle (math 2% / reading 3%, grade F, #329 of 333 statewide, top 99%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Maplewood High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 691 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 794 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,199
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -38.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306B Queen Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+4%)	2mo	$299,900	$245	70
1206 Avondale Cir	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,199 (+2%)	1mo	$250,000	$209	65
312 Pullen Ave	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,194 (+1%)	2mo	$494,900	$414	58
1012 Meridian St	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+7%)	3mo	$585,000	$464	51
224 Capitol View Dr	1.00mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-8%)	1mo	$482,000	$447	50
600 E Trinity Ln #108	1.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+5%)	1mo	$417,000	$336	50
2573 Slaydon Dr	1.16mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-11%)	0mo	$395,000	$378	46
2706B Brunswick Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+22%)	1mo	$359,500	$250	43
801 Cherokee Ave #6	0.95mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (+9%)	1mo	$387,500	$303	42
2586 Bethwood Dr	1.24mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-13%)	2mo	$250,000	$244	37
1508 Jones Ave	0.94mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+19%)	3mo	$525,000	$374	32
752 Cottage Park Dr	0.95mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,464 (+24%)	3mo	$379,900	$259	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-61,599
• Equity at exit: $34,920

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-91,251
• Equity at exit: $20,249

Cash invested: $65,576 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active
• Months of supply: 72.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $149,900 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +61.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37207

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 794
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,513/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,049

Max offer price $186,544

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-248	+0% $-329	+5% $-410	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-394	+0% $-329	+5% $-265	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-270	base $-329	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,550
• Closing costs: $7,026
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 W Trinity Ln Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,597	$1.33	64d	1	0.20mi
110 Duke St #8 Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,800	$1.88	10d	1	0.27mi
109 Duke St Unit D Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	74d	1	0.30mi
109 Duke St Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	119d	1	0.30mi
109 Duke St Unit E Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	119d	1	0.30mi
204 Prince Ave Unit A Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	93d	1	0.34mi
215 Prince Ave Unit D Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	780	$999	$1.28	119d	1	0.37mi
438 Roger Williams Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	116d	1	0.42mi
461 Roger Williams Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.5	960	$1,300	$1.35	58d	1	0.48mi
1206 Avondale Cir Nashville, TN	4.0	1.5	1199	$3,000	$2.50	10d	1	0.52mi
1801 Meridian St Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	975	$2,758	$2.83	0d	20	0.53mi
308 Prince Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	111d	1	0.54mi
308 Prince Ave Unit A Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	116d	1	0.54mi
128 Gordon Ter Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	106d	1	0.54mi
349 Queen Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1496	$2,895	$1.94	10d	1	0.58mi
143 Donald St Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,700	$2.11	7d	1	0.64mi
1507 Meridian St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,780	$1.78	10d	1	0.66mi
2003 Overby Rd Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	924	$2,295	$2.48	103d	1	0.67mi
5515 Scruggs Ln Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,681	$1.65	0d	45	0.68mi
2603 Woodyhill Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0	872	$2,250	$2.58	10d	1	0.73mi
149 Dellway Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,388	$2.07	80d	1	0.77mi
1829 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1274	$2,161	$1.70	10d	1	0.82mi
463 Monticello St Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,700	$1.31	10d	1	0.85mi
55 Lucile St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	680	$2,150	$3.16	0d	15	0.86mi
214 Lucile Ln Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1326	$2,499	$1.88	82d	1	0.86mi
1812 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	74d	1	0.88mi
1812 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	68d	1	0.88mi
1812 Glade St Nashville, TN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	82d	1	0.88mi
2523 Flamingo Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,550	$1.55	74d	1	0.91mi
518 E Trinity Ln Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,650	$1.77	93d	1	0.92mi
2316 Woodridge Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,595	$1.68	119d	1	0.93mi
801 Cherokee Ave #13 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1280	$2,445	$1.91	10d	1	0.93mi
131 Eastmoreland St Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	1220	$2,550	$2.09	10d	1	0.94mi
805 Cherokee Ave #4 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,100	$1.75	62d	1	0.95mi
752 Cottage Park Dr Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1464	$2,200	$1.50	58d	1	0.98mi
1601 Haynes Meade Cir Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,295	$1.62	10d	1	0.99mi
64 Fern Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,899	$1.97	82d	1	1.00mi
538 Norton Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	114d	1	1.00mi
2900 Edwin Way Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	68d	2	1.02mi
2900 Edwin Way Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	9d	1	1.02mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as a plan (new construction inventory type)List price $145,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: Fleetwood U86 Holiday VillageSingle-story (plan information)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,178 (plan)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air cooling

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-07-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-07-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-07-06
   days on market $145,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-07-05
   days on market $145,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $145,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $145,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $145,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $145,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-27
    days on market $145,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-25
    days on market $145,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-22
    days on market $145,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $145,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $145,000 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $145,000 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
20. 2026-06-13
    days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
21. 2026-06-13
    days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
22. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
23. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
24. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
25. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 91 DOM
27. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
28. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
29. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,513
• − Insurance: −$1,171
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$6,813
• Taxable loss: −$8,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,960
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 4/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tom Joy Elementary F TN #926/952 Nat'l #41,309/41,679 Middle Jere Baxter Middle F TN #329/333 Nat'l #13,969/14,009 High Maplewood High F TN #294/332 Nat'l #16,721/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 808,568 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 41,366
• Household income: $61,744
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.21%
• Current HPI: 351.9628
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as a plan (new construction inventory type)List price $145,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: Fleetwood U86 Holiday VillageSingle-story (plan information)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,178 (plan)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air cooling