1552 Heifer Rd

Skaneateles, NY 13152

$799,900F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 1914 · SingleFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$1,029
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-879/mo
• Annual: $-10,543/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $223,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-879 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $645k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $550k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in NY, #2,279 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Skaneateles Central School District (town): math 78% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #65 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $419k; list at $800k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.0% in Skaneateles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.