1552 Heifer Rd · Skaneateles, NY 13152

$799,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1914 2.02 ac lot $312/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A classic farmhouse overlooking Skaneateles Lake, thoughtfully reimagined over the years and set on 2 lovely acres. A new first-floor addition brings a private primary suite with California Closets and a luxury bath, while reclaimed barn wood posts and plentiful windows flood the home with natural light and frame panoramic lake views. Du Chateau hardwood floors and updated fixtures run throughout, alongside a state-of-the-art kitchen with granite counters, top-of-the-line appliances, and travertine backsplash. Character details are everywhere: beamed ceilings, exposed brick, wide plank floors, a brick wood-burning fireplace, a wood-burning stove, and Hardie board siding. Three bedrooms and three full baths offer comfortable accommodation, and outside, a screened porch and flat, generous backyard capture the lake views, while a back deck and detached oversized two-car garage round out the property — all within the award-winning Skaneateles School District.

Key facts

• Luxury bath
• California closets
• First floor addition

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR ADDITION
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• CALIFORNIA CLOSETS
• LUXURY BATH
• RECLAIMED BARN WOOD POSTS
• PLENTIFUL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-879 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $645k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $550k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.0% in Skaneateles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in NY, #2,279 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Skaneateles Central School District (town): math 78% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #65 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $419k; list at $800k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $550,000 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,771,372
• List price: $799,900
• Delta: -54.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-185,682
• Equity at exit: $119,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-234,169
• Equity at exit: $69,161

Cash invested: $223,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13152

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,347/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,612

Max offer price $644,687

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,975
• Closing costs: $23,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1916 W Lake Rd Skaneateles, NY	4.0	2.5	3056	$5,500	$1.80	20d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Under Contract 975-char remark

   Show marketing remark (975 chars)

   A classic farmhouse overlooking Skaneateles Lake, thoughtfully reimagined over the years and set on 2 lovely acres. A new first-floor addition brings a private primary suite with California Closets and a luxury bath, while reclaimed barn wood posts and plentiful windows flood the home with natural light and frame panoramic lake views. Du Chateau hardwood floors and updated fixtures run throughout, alongside a state-of-the-art kitchen with granite counters, top-of-the-line appliances, and travertine backsplash. Character details are everywhere: beamed ceilings, exposed brick, wide plank floors, a brick wood-burning fireplace, a wood-burning stove, and Hardie board siding. Three bedrooms and three full baths offer comfortable accommodation, and outside, a screened porch and flat, generous backyard capture the lake views, while a back deck and detached oversized two-car garage round out the property — all within the award-winning Skaneateles School District.

2. 2026-03-24
   listed $799,900 Active 975-char remark

   Show marketing remark (975 chars)

   A classic farmhouse overlooking Skaneateles Lake, thoughtfully reimagined over the years and set on 2 lovely acres. A new first-floor addition brings a private primary suite with California Closets and a luxury bath, while reclaimed barn wood posts and plentiful windows flood the home with natural light and frame panoramic lake views. Du Chateau hardwood floors and updated fixtures run throughout, alongside a state-of-the-art kitchen with granite counters, top-of-the-line appliances, and travertine backsplash. Character details are everywhere: beamed ceilings, exposed brick, wide plank floors, a brick wood-burning fireplace, a wood-burning stove, and Hardie board siding. Three bedrooms and three full baths offer comfortable accommodation, and outside, a screened porch and flat, generous backyard capture the lake views, while a back deck and detached oversized two-car garage round out the property — all within the award-winning Skaneateles School District.

3. 2019-12-16
   soldstatus $419,000
4. 2019-12-13
   soldstatus $419,000 Closed Sale or Rented 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   Current owner has an eye for design & has made a number of improvements to this stunning renovated farmhouse! Panoramic lake views were enhanced and an abundance of natural light was let in by opening multiple walls and adding reclaimed barn wood posts to match the original home. Multiple projects included installing high end Du Chateau hardwood floors, updating fixtures, replacing stair railings and painting throughout. The home also has a new wood burning stove as well as a brick wood burning fireplace which was recently cleaned and certified for use. Additionally, Hardie board fire retardant siding was just installed along with new gutters and drains. To cap it off, extensive easy to maintain landscaping make the home practically maintenance free.

5. 2019-12-09
   status Pending Sale 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   Current owner has an eye for design & has made a number of improvements to this stunning renovated farmhouse! Panoramic lake views were enhanced and an abundance of natural light was let in by opening multiple walls and adding reclaimed barn wood posts to match the original home. Multiple projects included installing high end Du Chateau hardwood floors, updating fixtures, replacing stair railings and painting throughout. The home also has a new wood burning stove as well as a brick wood burning fireplace which was recently cleaned and certified for use. Additionally, Hardie board fire retardant siding was just installed along with new gutters and drains. To cap it off, extensive easy to maintain landscaping make the home practically maintenance free.

6. 2019-10-25
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   Current owner has an eye for design & has made a number of improvements to this stunning renovated farmhouse! Panoramic lake views were enhanced and an abundance of natural light was let in by opening multiple walls and adding reclaimed barn wood posts to match the original home. Multiple projects included installing high end Du Chateau hardwood floors, updating fixtures, replacing stair railings and painting throughout. The home also has a new wood burning stove as well as a brick wood burning fireplace which was recently cleaned and certified for use. Additionally, Hardie board fire retardant siding was just installed along with new gutters and drains. To cap it off, extensive easy to maintain landscaping make the home practically maintenance free.

7. 2019-10-21
   listed $419,000 Active 768-char remark

   Show marketing remark (768 chars)

   Current owner has an eye for design & has made a number of improvements to this stunning renovated farmhouse! Panoramic lake views were enhanced and an abundance of natural light was let in by opening multiple walls and adding reclaimed barn wood posts to match the original home. Multiple projects included installing high end Du Chateau hardwood floors, updating fixtures, replacing stair railings and painting throughout. The home also has a new wood burning stove as well as a brick wood burning fireplace which was recently cleaned and certified for use. Additionally, Hardie board fire retardant siding was just installed along with new gutters and drains. To cap it off, extensive easy to maintain landscaping make the home practically maintenance free.

8. 2017-09-05
   soldstatus $318,000 Closed Sale or Rented
9. 2017-08-22
   soldstatus $318,000
10. 2017-06-26
    status Pending Sale
11. 2017-06-05
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
12. 2017-04-20
    price $329,900
13. 2017-04-20
    listed $299,900 Active
14. 2012-11-02
    historical
15. 2012-10-29
    soldstatus $298,000
16. 2012-10-26
    soldstatus $298,000
17. 2012-06-01
    listed $317,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,347 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,933 · $911/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,586/yr (+$215/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,807
• − Property taxes: −$8,347
• − Insurance: −$4,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$23,270
• Taxable loss: −$24,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,996
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Skaneateles Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626940
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,561
• Composite: 68.61/100
• National rank: #340
• State rank: #65 of 590 in NY

Livability — Skaneateles

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #2279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 424.2545
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $799,900 CNYIS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $419,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-13 Sold (MLS) $419,000 CNYIS
• 2019-12-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-10-25 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2019-10-21 Listed $419,000 CNYIS
• 2017-09-05 Sold (MLS) $318,000 CNYIS
• 2017-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $318,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2017-06-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2017-04-20 Price Changed $329,900 CNYIS
• 2017-04-20 Listed $299,900 CNYIS
• 2012-11-02 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2012-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $298,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-26 Sold (MLS) $298,000 CNYIS
• 2012-06-01 Listed $317,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,347 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.